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Millions of people are in the path of cyclonic storm Remal, the first storm brewed in the Bay of Bengal this year, as it churned towards  Bangladesh and West Bengal coasts moving northward amid forecasts of making landfall in the afternoon today with winds gusting to 135 kilometre per hour.  

The biggest threat from the storm, however, is the likelihood of it causing flooding since while dragging along the ocean water, the cyclone is forecast to drop copious amounts of rain through May 29.

The Bangladesh Meteorological Department at 9:00pm on Saturday issued danger signal number seven for two of its maritime ports—Payra and Mongla. The maritime ports of Chattogram and Cox’s Bazar have been advised to hoist signal number 6.

The storm is likely to cross Bangladesh and West Bengal between Khepupara and Sagar Island, the BMD said, with heavy rain and wind.

‘The main body of the storm might start moving onto land from the afternoon tomorrow,’ said meteorologist Abdur Rahman Khan at a press conference about 9:00pm Saturday, adding that the storm’s centre might move onto land around late afternoon.

‘The storm is likely to lose its strength while making its way through the Sundarbans,’ he added, saying that the speed of wind when the storm hit might be 88kmph.

The India Meteorological Department predicted that the storm might hit with wind gusting to 135kmph.

Remal, which means sand in Arabic, was centred over east-central Bay of Bengal at 6:00pm on Saturday, the BMD said.

The storm was 450km off Chattogram port, 400km southwest of Cox’s Bazar port, 405km south of Mongla port and 365km south of Payra port, according to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department.

Maximum sustained wind speed within 58km of the storm centre was about 62kmph rising up to 88kmph in gusts, the BMD said.

The BMD predicted 3–5 feet tidal surge above regular  astronomical tide in coastal districts of Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Pirojpur, Jhalkathi, Barguna, Patuakhali, Bhola, Noakhali, Laxmipur, Cox’s Bazar, Chattogram, Feni, Cumilla and Noakhali and their offshore islands and chars.

Fishing boats and trawlers have been ordered to remain in shelter until further notice.

Cyclone Preparedness Programme director Ahmadul Haque said that evacuation started immediately after the signal was raised to seven. About a million people are expected to evacuate, mainly from seven out of 13 coastal districts deemed most vulnerable to the impacts of the cyclone.

‘We expect to complete evacuation before afternoon,’ said Ahmadul Haque.

Ccoastal districts house 4,000 cyclone shelters.

‘Parts of Bangladesh, particularly coastal areas, began witnessing rain under the influence of the storm’s outer bands,’ meteorologist Monowar Hossain told ¶¶Òõ¾«Æ· on Saturday afternoon.

‘The storm is expected to bring rainfall for days, perhaps until May 29,’ he said.

Bangladesh is likely to bear the brunt of the cyclone with it likely causing nonstop wind blowing over 100kmph for hours while moving onto land. Bangladesh’s coastal areas are home to millions of poor who live between one to five metre elevations from the sea, often in rickety houses unable to withstand the monstrous force of the storm even for minutes.

Some coastal areas are directly exposed to the sea since embankments separating them from the sea were washed away by storms over the years, especially by the cyclone Aila, which hit Bangladesh at the end of May 2009 with winds gusting to 120kmph.

The IMD said that the storm moved at a speed of 12kmph over the past six hours until 5:50pm Indian time, predicting that it might bring heavy to extremely heavy rainfall in areas adjacent to and upstream of Bangladesh such as West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Monipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh through May 28.

The prospect of extremely heavy rainfall, particularly in Chittagong, sparked landslide fears. Hundreds of thousands of people live in hill slopes that have been over the years deforested and cut down.

Over one million Rohingyas living in the hillocks of Cox’s Bazar are particularly at risk because of their deplorable housings, many of which are dangerously built on hill slopes.

Authorities decided to move thousands of Rohingyas from their houses to safe shelters inside their camps.

The BMD in its weather bulletin issued at 6:00pm on Saturday for 24 hours predicted rain or thunder showers accompanied by temporary gusty wind at most places over Khulna, Barishal, Dhaka and Chattogram divisions and at many places over Rajshahi, Mymensingh and Sylhet divisions with heavy to very heavy rainfall at places over the southern part of the country.

The BMD predicted the day air temperature to drop by up to 5C.

In yet another example of Bangladesh’s vulnerability to extreme weather event, just before being slammed by the storm, the country got baked in sizzling hot weather on Saturday, with the country’s highest temperature of 41.7C recorded in Chuadanga.

Day air temperatures hovered around 40C in many places as a mild to moderate heatwave continued to bake the country. Bangladesh’s highest rainfall of 27mm in the 24 hours ending at 6:00pm on Saturday was recorded in Rangamati.

¶¶Òõ¾«Æ· staff correspondent in Chattogram reported that the Chattogram Port Authority asked importers to transfer their cargo and containers to consigned places by afternoon today (Sunday).

The CPA had earlier announced that all operations at the port would cease after the signal crosses number 4.

An analysis of historic data on cyclones preserved by the BMD from 1990 to 2020 revealed May as one of the deadliest cyclone months. The month of May over the period produced at least 22 major cyclones, mostly hitting the coast of Bangladesh, some of them with winds gusting to over 240kmph.

May cyclones are particularly characterised by extreme rainfall, often causing 300mm of rain. In May 2004, two cyclones generated back to back in the Bay of Bengal caused 1,170mm of rainfall.

The strongest cyclone the north Indian Ocean ever produced was Fani in May 2019 with wind rising up to 280kmph and causing 410mm of rainfall. Last May produced the cyclonic storm called Mocha with equal wind intensity of Fani. Mocha, however, lost strength before making landfall and rapidly weakened overland.