The Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party is in for another round and many Indian commentators are saying that it is because he is turning ‘India’ into a nation and giving people a sense of pride and security that they did not have before. It is not development but politics which is his trump card. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance may get as many as 373 out of 543 seats in Lok Sabha. Meanwhile the Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance is expected to win 155 seats.
While the seats are more than double, the vote share is not so wide with nearly 47 per cent to the NDA and nearly 40 per cent to the Congress-led alliance. The 7 per cent is not big but is a critical decider.
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Modi’s notches
SO, WHY is the BJP so popular at home? Many commentators are talking about a sense of nationalist pride which means being an Indian Hindu, proud of their ancient heritage. This is correct, but does it wholly explain the consistent run of a decade?
Some notches are for all to see. The bottom third is less poor, less rural and more educated than from a decade ago. Physical infrastructure, internet access and regular electricity supply are here more than before. Infrastructure has upped rapidly and more than half the people have the internet now. The size of the national highway network has doubled and the government has built a network of semi-high-speed trains, the Vande Bharat Express.
The government has been proactive and brought water, sanitation, etc closer to homes and families. Under the Har Ghar Jal scheme, the number of rural households with tap water jumped from around 16 per cent to 72 per cent between 2019 and 2022 and more than 110 million toilets were built and the percentage of Indians practising open defecation went from 50 per cent to around 15 per cent.
However, unemployment is still high at 45 per cent and many are dependent on social welfare. But Modi has made that delivery much more efficient using digital technology and reduced intermediaries and corruption. More are covered by such schemes now and the usual left-outs like women and adivasis are better reached.
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Bande mataram factor
THE media say the usual sushil issues such as attacks on minority rights, raids on media houses and putting opposition leaders in jail have not cost the Bharatiya Janata Party much as its popularity ratings show.
Wisdom in the media is that the BJP is popular because it has made India look and feel strong. This has been achieved by snuffing out internal threats —Maoists and the North East — while promoting Hindutva which includes an anti-Muslim stance. The revoking of Article 370 of the Indian constitution in Kashmir and the passage of the Citizens Act are all very popular decisions.
Indian people want to feel important and the BJP makes them feel like one big fish. With most people being deeply religious, the Hindutva vision confirms the fundamental supremacy of the majority faith and it provides a legitimacy which benefits the BJP, many say.
It would seem that India’s economic miracle is missing although the spiritual miracle could be on. A Pew survey from 2021 says that 96 per cent of Indians are proud to be Indian, 72 per cent believe that their culture is superior to other’s and 57 per cent think that being Hindu was important than being ‘truly Indian.’ Most are happy about building the Ram Mandir and the assassination attempt of the Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada showed the signs of a country’s emerging great power status. However…
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Lessons from India
THE idea that comes from Indian elite media is that people are feeling ‘Indian’ for the first time because of the promotion of the traditional idea of Indian ‘superpower’ status, both internally and externally. It is not just about muscle flexing against state foes such as the Maoists and the Khalistan types but also Kashmiris; an identity description is partly shared by Indian Muslims as well. It is a common model of populism and it has worked. However, the Indian media seem to be into a bit of overselling as well.
One can sell India to itself, but it is nice to ponder over the power of the state when it is done in a quality sanitary latrine supported by running water which the government has provided. While it is true that human rights violations and free media are more of elite concerns, so are such ideas of the ‘one nation’ that some are now discovering. Such ideas are rooted from the colonial political era and politically useful. Just because there is more internet does not mean Indians believe that they are a ‘single nation’.
The vote share rather than seat share is also significant. Seven per cent more people are pro-BJP over Congress and while significant is not a major chasm. That means the Congress vision has 40 per cent subscribers which is a big chunk just as the BJP has 47 per cent which is bigger, but only 7 per cent ahead. And, does it mean that 40 per cent of Indians do not feel very ‘Indian’, the idea that is carrying the BJP to power once more?
Winning an election with an under 10 per cent vote share difference after 10 years in power probably means that they prefer the service delivery as much as the slogan package. Perhaps, it would be as important now to ask why this 40 per cent remains unsold on the Big India vision as well.
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Afsan Chowdhury is a researcher and journalist.
