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The massive Myanmar earthquake that damaged over 1,500 buildings close to the epicentre and left skyscrapers over 1,000km away in Bangkok swaying brought back Bangladesh’s worst fear: Is the densely-populated country with millions living in the megacity Dhaka ready to deal with such a disaster?

The answer is ‘no’, earthquake experts and disaster responders said, particularly for the country’s largely ignored building codes and poor rescue and rehabilitation capacity, with scientists warning that an earthquake measuring 7 or even more on the Richter scale is imminent.

Surrounded by one of the world’s most active seismic regions, perfectly conditioned to produce the worst earthquakes from three tectonic plates converging, scientists say, Bangladesh also sits on numerous faults where powerful earthquakes originated in the past.

Over the past five centuries, records show, massive earthquakes recurred in Bangladesh and its adjacent areas, shifting the course of the mighty Brahmaputra River, causing the earth to open to throw up water and sulfurous mud, killing hundreds of people and toppling infrastructures.

It has been over a century since the last significant earthquake hit Bangladesh, scientists said, raising alarm over small-scale earthquakes increasing in all possible places in and outside Bangladesh -- indicative of the buildup of energy needed for causing earthquakes.

‘I would say Bangladesh is on course to witness the deadliest disaster in world history, given its population density, poor rescue and rehabilitation capacity and highly vulnerable buildings,’ said Muhammod Nazrul Islam, who teaches geography and environment at Jahangirnagar University.

Already well-known for one of the world’s worst building collapses, where rescue operations took weeks to complete despite the Army leading the effort, Bangladesh sits in a geographical location fraught with potential earthquake epicentres, scientists said.

The region stretching from Sylhet to Chittagong Hill Tracts is the most vulnerable, said Nazrul, near where the Indian plate and the Burma micro-plate converge. This is where the latest Myanmar earthquake came from, leading to more than 3,000 deaths.

Destructions in Dhaka would depend on its closeness to the epicentre, he said, adding that Dhaka could witness severe damages from an earthquake with its epicentre 300km away.

Biswajit Nath, currently working on earthquake hazard monitoring as a visiting scientist at the Aerospace Information Research Institute in Beijing, warned that yet another earthquake measuring between 6.5 and 7.1 on the Richter scale was likely near where the recent earthquake struck.

The energy needed to trigger a severe earthquake has also accumulated in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, in Manipur and Tripura  regions in India, and around Dhubri in the Indian state of Assam, he said.

‘Seismic activities have frighteningly and consistently increased in the regions over the past few decades,’ said Biswajit, who teaches geography and environment at the University of Chittagong.

In Netrakona and Mymensingh regions, within 150km of Dhaka, earthquakes measuring 7.1 and 6.9 on the Richter scale occurred in 1918 and 1923 respectively.  A 7 magnitude earthquake had its epicentre in Manikganj, about 50km from Dhaka, in 1885.   

Reportedly 500 people were killed in Dhaka in the 1762 earthquake that caused a permanent submergence of over 150 sq km area near Chattogram. The great 1897 earthquake, which measured 8.7 on the Richter scale, originated in Shillong Plateau, killing more than 500 people in Sylhet. The first recorded earthquake was the 1548 earthquake that violently shook Sylhet and Chattogram.

A 2016 research revealed that the  Geological  Survey of  Bangladesh confirmed at least  465  earthquakes of minor-to-moderate magnitudes  taking place between 1971 and 2006. The actual number of earthquakes would be higher as Bangladesh had only one earthquake observatory with an analog monitoring system in Chattogram until 2007.

Bangladesh Meteorological Department’s director Momenul Islam said that though scientists cannot exactly say when an earthquake was going to happen, their prediction is bound to materialise sooner or later.

‘The Myanmar earthquake was predicted about seven years ago. It was inevitable,’ he said.

Earthquake prediction is made based on scientific evidence such as seismic activities and after examining soil conditions, he said.

Ground earthquake observatories are crucial to making predictions of the disaster. Bangladesh has been rather complacent about the potentially deadliest threat for it had only one ground earthquake observatory with analog technology in Chattogram until 2007.

Currently, there are 13 earthquake observatories, five of them digitalized, in as many districts, representing about a fifth of the country’s administrative regions. The epicentre of an earthquake cannot be determined without having feed from three observatories.

The determination of epicentres is crucial for future earthquake predictions, scientists say.

Since an earthquake cannot be prevented or its time exactly predicted, disaster responders find no alternative to staying ready before a deadly quake strikes.

Home to over 171 million people, Bangladesh’s main disaster responder, the Fire Service and Civil Defence, has 14,000 staff. The fire service work is overwhelmingly focused on handling fire hazards.

Fire service officials said that they provided post-earthquake rescue training to 55,000 volunteers across Bangladesh. About 30 per cent of the upazilas in Bangladesh are yet to get a fire service office. The best fire service office has 52 men.

The rescue operation after an earthquake requires a lot of trained people capable of using hand-held equipment to cut concrete and bend steel. The post-earthquake operation is massive and needs to be completed in 72 hours to save the lives of those trapped under rubble.

Disaster responders face the biggest challenge in accessing the sites, especially in parts of the old Dhaka, where roads are too narrow with poorly constructed infrastructure looming overhead. A major obstruction in rescue following an earthquake would be fire, potentially originating from the earthquake snapping underground gas pipelines. 

‘The best preparedness could be creating awareness about earthquake risks and possibilities,’ said Shahjahan Sikder, senior staff officer, the fire service.

Disappearing open spaces, replaced with even more concrete structures, present another obstacle to rescue operations which will need a place to shelter affected people, said earthquake engineering experts.

An immediate evaluation of buildings is necessary and the future construction of infrastructures has to be strictly monitored from design through construction.

‘We are ill-prepared to deal with earthquake impacts if one strikes tomorrow. But if we have a decade before an earthquake hits we can significantly reduce losses by taking the right action,’ said Mohammad Shariful Islam, who teaches civil engineering at BUET.