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ON THE night of April 13, Iran attacked Israel for the first time in history with drones and missiles. Israel claimed that Iran had launched 170 drones, more than 309 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles. Iran did not specify the number of drones and missiles fired into Israel. Iranian attacks came as a retaliation to Israel’s strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria on April 1, which killed 13 people, including seven members of Iran Revolutionary Guard Corp and two of them were majors general. After the attack, the Iranian armed forces chief of staff said, ‘The operation had achieved all of its objectives and was over.’ What were Iran’s objectives?

Iran’s chief of staff did not explain the objectives of Iran’s operation, code-named True Promise. Understandably, the fundamental objective was to launch an attack to avenge Israeli attack on Iranian consulate, which is Iran’s sovereign territory under the Vienna Convention. The Associated objectives are (1) to assure the domestic audience that Iran is not weak, (2) demonstrate Iran’s long-distance attack capability, (3) test own tactics and weapons in long-distance air warfare, and (4) challenge Israeli military’s invincibility.

Iran’s attack had two principal dimensions — political and military. On the political front, it was a telegraphic attack of drones and missiles telling all players about the impending attack. Iran did not want to catch Israel off-guards to avoid a full-scale war. According to Iran’s foreign minister, Tehran informed the United States that its attack on Israel would be ‘limited’ and also told regional neighbours of its planned strikes 72 hours in advance. Iran wanted the United States and its allies to know of the plan and, perhaps, also the timing of the attack allowing Israel and its allies to have adequate air defences in place. Drones were in the air for nine hours, allowing sufficient time to the United States, Israel and its Arab allies to intercept projectiles in the air.

The principal purpose of the telegraphic attack was to avoid a full-scale war but to resolutely demonstrate Iran’s military resolve. A full-scale war would mean Israel’s proxies, the United States and the United Kingdom, fighting Iran. Iran could not afford to take that risk. However, Iran claims to have an Israeli intelligence centre close to the Syrian border and an airbase had been destroyed ‘to a significant extent and put out of operation’.

Iran also claims to have damaged Israeli strategic Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert which was used to attack Iranian consulate. Mohsen Abdollahi, a Tehran-based professor, said that Iran’s defensive attacks against a decade of Israeli cyber and military attacks on civilian targets and individuals in Iran were limited and had the lowest human casualties. Why? Because Iran did not want to expand the war in the region. The message of Iran’s attack is: ‘Stop the attack on Iran or you will face a real attack.’

The military dimension of the attack was Iran testing its tactics and its reach. Iran orchestrated a three-stage or three waves of attack in succession. First, the low-cost drones, Shahed 136, were fired followed by cruise missiles with bomblets as warheads and, third, ballistic missiles with reduced payload. Drones triggered Iran’s iron dome missiles, cruise missiles with flare like bomblets activated patriots and ballistic missiles entered Israeli air space while air defences were engaged with cheap drones and flare like bomblets. The warhead detached from ballistic missile with acceleration to hit the target quickly. Apart from assessing political and military impact on the ground, the balance of the attack and defence is also weighed in terms costs. The attack cost Iran around $60–68 million and the defence cost Israel between $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion.

Another political frontier of the confrontation was Arab nations taking side with Israel. Jordan, ‘a country with a queen of Palestine heritage’ shot down a number of Iranian drones and missiles to defend Israel. Jordanian prime minister ridiculously claimed to have done so in ‘self defence’ although the Iranian attack was directed against Israel. Saudi Arabia and the UAE shared intelligence with the US and opened their air space to help intercept Iranian drones and missiles. Some commentators do not view Saudi and UAE role in this case ‘as betrayal of the Iranians or greater Muslim cause.’

Iran reportedly wanted Arab countries also to pass intelligence to the US. This tactic has similarity with Iran’s attack on Al Asad air base in Iraq in 2021 after the US drone strike killed General Qassem Soleimani. The telegraphic attack saved everyone’s face. Iran’s government can say its people at home that it attacked Israel, Israel can claim to have shot down 99 per cent of the incoming projectiles and protected its citizens, the US can claim to have defended Israel and Arab countries except Jordan can pretend they were not involved. The whole transactions look win-win for all parties. But it will not stop Israel there.

Israel announced a hit back at Iran. Israel did not give any indication when it will strike back. But there are indications where it will hit. Israel will target Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran warned of retaliation with greater force never used before. Israel and the US will be happy to drag Iran into a wider war.

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Mohammad Abdur Razzak ([email protected]), a retired commodore of the Bangladesh navy, is a security analyst.