A RECENT study has warned that rapid and forceful climate change is affecting the economy, GDP growth, livelihoods of common people and human health, with growing gender inequity in developing countries, particularly among the most vulnerable countries. Global climate change brings a great threat with many risks to Mother Earth and its people and ecosystems, especially for the least developed countries. South Asia has both LDCs and a number of V20 countries. The low-lying coastal countries like Bangladesh and the island state of the Maldives, as well as the land-locked countries like Nepal, Bhutan and Afghanistan, are members of the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the most Vulnerable Twenty, or V20, countries. The V20 countries are severely affected by many of the climate stresses and climatic extremes. Around 85 per cent of people globally feel and understand the negative impacts of temperature rise and changes in precipitation, the two major drivers of climate change. The impacts of climate change differ from country to country due to geophysical and socio-economic realities. These have been reported in the Climate Vulnerability Monitor of the V20 and the Global Centre on Adaptation, based in the Netherlands.
听
Growing climate vulnerability in South Asia
THE global warming and temperature rise of around 1.5掳C (reported in January 2024) are already having severe impacts across the world. The science is clear to show the direct link between climate change caused by human activities and detrimental outcomes. Every fraction of a degree of further warming will add to this mounting loss and damage to lives and properties, which will increase the challenges of adapting, especially for the most vulnerable countries and communities. The Climate Vulnerability Monitor highlights the different biophysical changes that are projected globally for scenarios of warming of 1.5掳C and below 2掳C. The effects of human-induced climate change can be reflected in several biophysical indicators, spanning dimensions such as temperature rise and changes in rainfall and hydrological patterns, as well as in extreme events such as floods, cyclones and landslides. The impacts of these changes in biophysical indicators are felt in several aspects of natural and human systems that will affect the economy and social systems like food security, health, livelihoods, gender equity and deepening poverty in the V20 countries. The evidence shows that climate change has already altered terrestrial, freshwater, and ocean ecosystems across the globe on all scales, impacting system structure, species, and the timing of seasonal life cycles. These impacts directly affect key resources, key development sectors and the economic activities of South Asian countries.
Bangladesh is already suffering from both abrupt changes in weather patterns and climate, with the intensity of climate extremes like frequent and long-duration floods, drought, salinity, cyclones and erosion. In addition, societal exposure to such climate and disaster risks is further increased by the country鈥檚 high population and widespread poverty. The current climate change variability and extremes affect the food security of millions of people in Bangladesh. Every year, natural hazards cause extensive damage to crops, livestock, and community assets, decreasing livelihood opportunities for vulnerable groups, which pose serious threats to human health and nourishment. Bangladesh National Adaptation Paln (2022) has indicated that the combined effects of climate change could range from a loss of 1.1 per cent of GDP per year in a moderate climate change to 2 per cent of GDP per annum in an extreme climate condition in 2050. It is anticipated that food and water security in Bangladesh will be under severe pressure due to weak socioeconomic conditions, population growth and the effects of climate change.
Recently, Afghanistan has suffered the most severe drought in the history of the country in the last decade. Temperature and precipitation are fluctuating due to the geographical variance of the country. Nepal is highly exposed to the risk of natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, extreme temperatures, and drought. All the climate hazards create pressure on agricultural production and thus cause damage to livelihoods, especially through ecosystem changes and the availability of natural resources. It is projected that it will create an additional loss of 2 per cent to 3 per cent of the current GDP per year by 2050. As a landlocked and least developed country, Bhutan鈥檚 vulnerability is a bit different. As a carbon-negative country, Bhutan is heavily dependent on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, horticulture, agro-business, and tourism, with a low level of economic diversification. Glacial lake outburst floods, land degradation, flash floods, droughts, strong winds, and thunderstorms are the major climatic problems in Bhutan. Changes in hydrological cycles, changes in temperature and precipitation patterns create severe pressure on agriculture, livelihoods and human health with the speed of tropical diseases in the country. The Maldives is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change. Sea level rise, irregular precipitation and temperature, and extreme events like El-Nino and drought are posing severe threats to the island state. The effects of tropical cyclones are always creating huge pressure on the infrastructure, economy and livelihoods in the country.
听
Climate change impacts on economy, livelihood
THE economic analysis of the Climate Vulnerability Monitor finds that there would be more volatile and decreasing GDP growth combined with heightened inflation and interest rates. These will increase across all geographies, including the South Asian region. Climate change will make investments more costly. Investments are the engine of economic and social development, even more so in the context of climate change, where more investments in mitigation and adaptation are required. But climate finance and investment in the V20 countries are inadequate. Further, reduced investments in mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage resulting from climate change could trigger a downward spiral of climate change and development. It is apprehended that the frequency and intensity of disasters like cyclones, floods and salinity intrusion may put enormous pressure on the economy and livelihoods, as well as agriculture and food security.
The Bangladesh National Adaptation Plan, 2022, has estimated that the country currently faces a huge loss of GDP every year due to climatic impacts, which may rise in the coming years. The government currently spends around 6鈥�7 per cent of its annual budget on climate change adaptation, with more than 75 per cent of this amount coming from domestic sources. The adaptation finance needs would undoubtedly increase with the slow onset and frequent extreme events. A policy paper by the Centre for Policy Dialogue titled Managing the Economic Crisis in Bangladesh has reported that Bangladesh is currently experiencing high inflation pressure due to the Ukraine war, post-Covid-19 impacts, and market distortion by a few dominant business and corporate bodies. The weak market monitoring and climate change impacts on agriculture, infrastructure and economic activities have also contributed to the economic crisis and price hike in Bangladesh. They have examined the price hike and inflation rates of food and non-food items over the last 2鈥�3 years and found that the price of rice (a staple food in Bangladesh) has shown an increasing trend from 2019 to 2022 in the country.
听
Impacts on human health and risk management
The Climate Vulnerability Monitor has reported that as temperature rises, exposure to extreme heat stress will rise, putting people at risk of heat stress and heat stroke, exacerbation of cardiovascular and respiratory disease, acute kidney injury, adverse pregnancy outcomes, and mental health impacts. The projections also indicate that vulnerable age groups (people over 65 years of age) will be increasingly exposed to life-threatening heat waves under all future climate scenarios. The increase will be considerably greater if no climate action is taken immediately. With the rising temperatures, heat-related mortality is also expected to rise. Assuming no further adaptation, heat-related deaths will sharply increase above baseline in the near future if no climate action is taken. In Bangladesh, heat stress, vector-related deaths (due to dengue and malaria), and waterborne diseases are on the rise. The poor, women, children, people with disabilities, elderly people, and socially excluded groups are facing severe climate-induced health risks in different geophysical regions and urban slums. The poor women and adolescent girls are badly affected by the physical impacts of climate change as well as various social factors and gender drivers (such as lack of social mobility, participation of women and limited access to climate and disaster information for preparedness).听
Bangladesh faced severe consequences from the dengue outbreak last year, which killed over 1,800 people. The climate scientists argue that the high incidence of dengue has a direct link with temperature rise and erratic rainfall in the monsoon and post-monsoon in Bangladesh. The impacts of climate change on health are mounting in South Asia. Countries need to put in place monitoring systems, early warning systems, and response systems that specifically target vulnerable populations in order to reduce the negative effects of heat exposure on their health. Considering the high risk and health impacts of climate change, the government of Bangladesh has prepared a draft Health National Adaptation Plan to address the impacts of climate change and protect the people from the adverse impacts of climate change. It has emphasised that all parts of the country are under multiple climatic hazards with huge climate-health risks and vulnerabilities. However, the coastal zone, floodplain, haor basin (perennial water bodies), barind (upland) and hilly areas are highly exposed to climate change and health vulnerabilities. There is an urgent need for a deeper understanding of the impacts of climate change and the social drivers of growing health risks, as well as the integration of adaptation and mitigation into public health systems and the mobilisation of adequate resources, skilled human resources, and medical equipment. These would need huge investment in climate-induced health risk management and building a climate-resilient health system in Bangladesh, where the WHO, UNICEF and other UN agencies and development partners must come forward to implement the Health NAP in Bangladesh.
听
Urgent need for accelerated adaptation actions
THE sixth assessment report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2022 has reported that adaptation occurs unevenly across different parts of the world. The planning phase is almost over, and it is high time for the implementation of transformative adaptation in the key impacted sectors and regions with communities and actors. The sectors are adapting unevenly to climate change in agriculture and food systems, water and WASH and infrastructure. Adaptation in the areas of homes and habitats, education, livelihoods, health, natural resources and ecosystems is needed in the V20 countries. Both software and hardware measures are needed for sustained impacts and outcomes of adaptation. But the adaptation process and efforts have many limitations in the V20 countries, including limited knowledge, institutional weakness, and financial and resource barriers. The effectiveness of adaptation efforts largely depends on planning and capacity building, adequate climate finance from both domestic and international sources, the participation of vulnerable communities, local government and technological innovation. The emerging locally led adaptation approach may remove many of the barriers.
The good news is that the countries in South Asia, including Bangladesh, have upgraded their climate policies and strategies for building a climate-resilient society and economy. For example, Bangladesh has identified 113 adaptation options in the national adaptation plan for enhancing adaptive capacity and long-term resilience in society, economy and ecosystems. Adaptation options have been identified to reduce the emerging risks and vulnerability to climate change, ensuring food security, health risk management and social protection of the poor, women and socially excluded groups. We need huge financial and technological support to translate the policies into local climate action to address vulnerability and enhance resilience. Hence, accelerated adaptation of different types, including sectoral and regional adaptation, locally led adaptation and ecosystem-based adaptation and mitigation, are needed for addressing the growing impacts of climate change on the economy, livelihoods, health and gender equity, as well as limiting the temperature rise, which may again reduce adaptation needs. In this context, more financial resources and technological supports are needed in the V20 countries for resilience building, ensuring food security, reducing health risks and addressing both economic and non-economic losses.
The NAP Expo, held from April 22鈥�25, 2024, in Dhaka, has discussed country-level experiences, best practices, lessons learned, gaps and needs in relation to the process of formulation, financing, capacity building and implementation of the NAPs. It is expected that the NAP Expo in Bangladesh has offered an effective platform for the least developed countries and stakeholders, including NGOs, the private sector, and civil society, to interact with the GCF, UN agencies, and other development partners to access the required supports to implement the NAPs in the V20 countries.
听
Dr Atiq Rahman is executive director of the Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies and Dr Dwijen Mallick is a BCAS fellow.
