THE ongoing tit-for-tat conflict between Israel and Iran was triggered by a deliberate Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria on April 1, which left 13 people, including seven members of Iran鈥檚 Al Quds force, dead. Iran on April 13 fired 280 long-range missiles and drones into Israel in retaliation for the first time in history. Israel fired back missiles on undisclosed targets in Iran.
On July 31, Israel killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh when he was visiting Iran as a state guest. On September 27, Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in southern Lebanon. In response to the Israel-sponsored assassinations of leaders of Iran鈥檚 allies, Iran on October 1 fired 180 missiles into Israel. Israel responded by attacking targets of its own choosing inside Iran on October 26.
Through the series of attack and defence, both Iran and Israel have crossed the threshold of deterrence that they showed against each other. Retaliatory actions are followed by ferocity of words hurled against each other. Iran promised to take revenge of the October 26 attacks. In response, Israel iterated actions of more severity against any future Iranian attacks.
The stage is set for a full-blown war between the two regional military powers. A war is generally said to be a full-blown once ground incursion into each other鈥檚 territory begins with different levels of forces engagements on multiple fronts 鈥� sea, air and land. In the case of Iran and Israel, they are effectively at war, but the distance factor between the two adversaries is keeping the full-blown war in check.
Jordan and Iraq are buffers between Israel and Iran. A stretch of about 1,500 kilometre third-country territory separated them. Jordan and Israel are neither adversaries nor allies but bounded by the United States-brokered peace agreement concluded in 1994. Jordan is in a perplex situation in the attack and defence between Iran and Israel. It is in the line of fire, quietly dispensing pressure from Israel and the United States by shooting down Iranian drones and missiles flying over its air space into Israel and allowing Israel to use its air space.
The Shia-majority Iraq is engaged with the United States by a security cooperation agreement. The United States has about 5,000 troops stationed in the Ain Al Assad airbase in al-Anbar governorate of western Iraq and in Erbil. In January 2024, the United States had more than 40,000 troops stationed in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Oman, the United Arab Emirate, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. Bahrain hosts the 5th Fleet Headquarters of the United States and Qatar hosts US Central Command.
Kuwait is hosting the largest number of US troops (13,000) in the Middle East. The United States has military facilities in Egypt. In the context of escalating fights, the United States has sent more troops and war materials to bases in the Middle East. The United States has positioned troops in Israel with ballistic missile defence systems. Besides reinforcing military bases in the Middle Eastern countries, the United States has deployed mighty carrier task forces in the Mediterranean, the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea in defence of Israel.
Developing events seem to have turned mlitary scenario into a 鈥榩oint of no return鈥� for Israel for a couple of reasons. Netanyahu has criminal proceedings pending at home. He needs to continue with the war for his political survival. The October 7 attack by Hamas has given Israel the pretext to kill the two-state solution. Israel and the United States see the present conflict as a huge scope to completely pull to pieces Iran and its allies in West Asia.
Iran鈥檚 ally Syria has already been reduced to rubble through the Arab spring and subsequent geopolitics of terrorism. The United States occupied part of Al Tanf of Homs governorate in Syria in 2016 and established a military base there to support opposition forces to continue fighting the Syrian government force. Approximately, 900 troops are stationed in this base.
In this present conflict, Israel has adopted the strategy of 鈥榞oing one after another.鈥� After substantially decapitating Hamas, Israel mobilised against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Massive aerial strikes target Hezbollah鈥檚 military facilities and civilian infrastructures. Air strikes are a prelude to the ground invasion of Lebanon. If Israel is successful in destroying Hezbollah鈥檚 capacity to fight, the last resistance remaining in the Middle East will be Iran. Israel will not want to miss the opportunity to weaken Iran. But Israel cannot do it alone.
It does not have the capacity to send foot soldiers into the Iranian territory. It they can join the US forces in the guise of American service men and women. Another option is to launch a nuclear strike on Iran to finish the game. That is easier said than done. The United States is the most powerful and convenient option for Israel to employ and take its war into the Iranian territory as Israel did in 2003 pushing the United States to attack Iraq. Will the United States do the same against Iran? If Israel wants, the United States will have little choice. The United States will engage with full force to destroy Iran鈥檚 war-making capability against Israel. To avoid war with the United States, could nuclear parity with Israel be an option for Iran?
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Mohammad Abdur Razzak ([email protected]), a retired commodore of the Bangladesh navy, is a security analyst.
