BEFORE 2024, such unprecedented public protests against the Awami League government would hardly have occurred. However, people have taken to the streets, and a key reason for this, I think, is the deteriorating economy. A worsening dollar crisis and liquidity crunch pushed Bangladesh to seek early financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund, learning from Sri Lanka鈥檚 downfall.
However, the IMF imposed several conditions, one of the most notable being the removal of fuel subsidies. To secure the loan, the government immediately withdrew these subsidies. This led to significant trouble as diesel prices rose from Tk64 鈥� Tk114, and petrol and octane prices jumped to Tk130/135. In response, businessmen drastically increased the prices of goods, some by several hundred percent, leading to severe public discontent.
Despite this economic fragility, the Awami League government remained indifferent. Even in the face of the largest dollar crisis since independence, the oligarchs did not halt money laundering; instead, they accelerated it. Consequently, the dollar crisis intensified, production declined, and exports dropped. The situation continued to worsen, but the government seemed unconcerned.
At the same time, during the liquidity crisis, the oligarchs escalated bank looting. The banking system began to collapse, with even 75 per cent to 86 per cent of the assets of certain banks being syphoned off in the guise of loans with the direct complicity of Bangladesh Bank. As a result, not only was there a dollar shortage, but a liquidity crisis also emerged. Instead of addressing these economic criminals, the government enabled them by printing more money, which had a disastrous impact on the market.
To obtain a loan of just Tk470 billion from the IMF, the government took the hard way, further fuelling public discontent. Meanwhile, scams were exceeding that amount in single transactions, such as the S Alam Islamic Bank loan scandal, where Tk360 billion was embezzled and Tk290 billion was looted from Janata Bank. No action was taken against these individuals; instead, they were encouraged to intensify money laundering and bank looting. Frustrated, people took to the streets over seemingly trivial issues like the quota system.
Unfortunately, the interim government is following the same path by increasing value-added tax as prescribed by the IMF, which is likely to spark public resentment. Instead, the government should have focused on imposing and collecting more taxes from the wealthy rather than raising VAT. It has increased VAT and supplementary duties on over 100 goods and services, raising the cost of essentials like mobile services, medicines, LPG, and fruits. For instance, the tax on mobile SIM cards rose from 20 per cent to 23 per cent. These changes, introduced through two ordinances, aim to meet IMF loan conditions.
This will disproportionately affect poor people, as higher prices for food and other basics will strain their limited budgets, worsening their financial hardships. Ordinary people do not understand complex reforms; they simply want the assurance of food security. As long as this is ensured, people do not protest. But when food security becomes uncertain, they no longer stay silent.
At this point, the public鈥檚 expectations from the current government are clear. People want controlled prices and stability in law and order. However, the government has failed on both fronts. Rumours are circulating about extortion, shifting hands and the rise of new corrupt players.
To regain stability and retain public confidence, the government must prioritise ensuring market stability, controlling inflation, cracking down on financial corruption, and implementing fair, people-centred economic policies. Failure to do so risks deepening the crisis, provoking public outrage, and leading to serious consequences for the government.
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Mahmudur Rahman Saidy is a lecturer in public administration at the University of Chittagong.
