THE Trump presidency has significantly shaped the trajectory of US-Bangladesh relations, departing from traditional diplomacy and ushering in a transactional foreign policy approach. Under Trump鈥檚 leadership, US foreign policy pivoted away from multilateral engagements, focusing instead on bilateral dealings driven by immediate strategic interests. For Bangladesh, navigating this framework during Trump鈥檚 initial term and preparing for the anticipated impacts of his second term revealed unique challenges and opportunities.
Since Bangladesh鈥檚 independence in 1971, its relationship with the United States has been marked by fluctuating degrees of cooperation and contention. In the early years, the US鈥檚 reluctance to support Bangladesh鈥檚 liberation war left a legacy of scepticism. Over time, however, shared priorities in economic development, counterterrorism, and regional stability helped to strengthen bilateral ties. Yet, recurring issues such as human rights, democracy, and labour standards have often strained this relationship, underscoring the complexity of these interactions.
Bangladesh鈥檚 geopolitical significance in South Asia has become increasingly apparent. Nestled between India and China, its strategic location on the Bay of Bengal positions it as a crucial player in global trade and regional security. Recognising these factors, the US has sought deeper engagement with Bangladesh to counter China鈥檚 expanding influence. Initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Strategy exemplify Washington鈥檚 commitment to cultivating partnerships with nations that align with its vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific. However, for Bangladesh, aligning too closely with one global power poses the risk of alienating others, necessitating a delicate balancing act.
During Trump鈥檚 first term, his administration鈥檚 foreign policy reflected a transactional approach, prioritising quid pro quo arrangements over multilateral commitments. For Bangladesh, this manifested in several critical areas. Economic ties with the US remained robust, with the latter serving as the largest export destination for Bangladeshi goods, particularly in the ready-made garment sector. However, Trump鈥檚 鈥淎merica First鈥� policies introduced uncertainties regarding trade tariffs and preferential access, creating apprehension within Bangladesh鈥檚 export-driven economy. The US also pressured Bangladesh to improve labour rights and workplace safety, particularly after the Rana Plaza disaster. While these demands aimed to ensure ethical practices, they were often perceived as prerequisites for maintaining favourable trade terms.
Geopolitically, the Trump administration鈥檚 Indo-Pacific Strategy sought to counterbalance China鈥檚 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). As a participant in BRI, Bangladesh found itself in the crosshairs of this strategic rivalry. Washington encouraged Dhaka to align more closely with US-led initiatives. Still, Bangladesh鈥檚 deepening ties with China in trade and infrastructure 鈥� including major projects like the Padma Bridge 鈥� complicated this alignment. While Bangladesh pursued a policy of neutrality, its growing economic reliance on China raised concerns in Washington.
Security cooperation between the US and Bangladesh also evolved during Trump鈥檚 tenure. Counterterrorism emerged as a shared priority, with the US providing support to address violent extremism within Bangladesh鈥檚 borders. Joint training exercises and military aid strengthened defence ties, reflecting mutual interests in regional stability. However, these efforts were occasionally overshadowed by US concerns over human rights abuses by Bangladeshi security forces. The administration鈥檚 compartmentalised approach 鈥� prioritising strategic gains while downplaying governance issues 鈥� highlighted the transactional nature of these engagements.
Democracy and governance in Bangladesh became focal points of contention during Trump鈥檚 presidency. The US expressed concerns over alleged democratic backsliding, particularly during the 2014 and 2018 elections, which were marred by allegations of voter suppression, media restrictions and opposition harassment. While the Trump administration raised these issues, it refrained from imposing severe consequences, reflecting a pragmatic stance where strategic interests often superseded moral imperatives. This approach underscored a shift in US foreign policy priorities, where democracy promotion became secondary to immediate geopolitical considerations.
As Trump鈥檚 second term unfolds, the implications for US-Bangladesh relations are significant and multifaceted. The intensifying US-China rivalry and evolving regional dynamics will likely influence the trajectory of these interactions. The Trump administration is expected to intensify its efforts to integrate Bangladesh into the Indo-Pacific framework, leveraging diplomatic channels to curtail Chinese influence and align Dhaka more closely with US strategic goals. However, Bangladesh鈥檚 balancing act between China and the US will be tested as it seeks to maintain economic and political autonomy while navigating competing global powers.
Economic relations between the US and Bangladesh are poised to face further scrutiny under Trump鈥檚 transactional approach. While the US remains a vital market for Bangladeshi exports, particularly in the garment sector, stricter conditions or tariffs could jeopardise these trade flows. Bangladesh鈥檚 reliance on the US as its largest trading partner underscores the need for diversification. Expanding trade relationships beyond traditional western markets, including strengthened ties with Asian, African, and Middle Eastern countries, could mitigate potential disruptions. Additionally, opportunities for American investments in energy, technology, and manufacturing sectors may expand, but these will likely be tied to governance or strategic alignment concessions.
The recent suspension of US foreign aid has introduced another layer of complexity to Bangladesh鈥檚 relationship with the United States. On his first day in office, Trump signed an executive order pausing all foreign assistance for 90 days, initiating a comprehensive review of aid programmes. This decision, rooted in the 鈥淎merica First鈥� doctrine, prioritises aligning aid with US national interests over development goals. The ramifications of this policy shift are significant for Bangladesh, which has historically been a major recipient of US assistance.
US foreign aid has supported Bangladesh鈥檚 healthcare, education, and infrastructure sectors. Programmes funded by USAID have addressed critical issues such as maternal and child health, infectious diseases, and disaster preparedness. However, the aid suspension threatens to disrupt these vital initiatives, potentially stalling progress in key areas. For instance, NGOs that rely heavily on US funding may face operational challenges, leading to staff layoffs and reduced services. This impact would be felt most acutely in rural and underserved communities, where US-supported programmes provide essential social safety nets.
The suspension also raises questions about Bangladesh鈥檚 diplomatic and economic strategies. A pause in US assistance may be perceived as a signal of reduced commitment from a longstanding ally, prompting Bangladesh to reconsider its foreign policy priorities. China鈥檚 growing economic influence in the region presents an alternative, but over-reliance on Chinese investments could limit Bangladesh鈥檚 strategic autonomy. Balancing these dynamics will require careful navigation to ensure sustainable development and maintain geopolitical stability.
Bangladesh鈥檚 strategic location and regional significance present both opportunities and challenges. Its proximity to the Bay of Bengal positions it as a key player in maritime security, counterterrorism efforts, and regional trade networks. Reduced American involvement in these areas could weaken Bangladesh鈥檚 capacity, prompting the country to explore alternative partnerships. China鈥檚 growing influence through investments and infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative could provide short-term economic relief but may limit Bangladesh鈥檚 diplomatic flexibility in the long run. Bangladesh must adopt a carefully calibrated approach to its foreign policy to maintain autonomy and leverage opportunities.
In response to these evolving dynamics, Bangladesh must prioritise proactive measures to safeguard its national interests. Reducing reliance on foreign aid and trade with a single partner requires comprehensive domestic reforms and targeted strategies. Enhancing tax collection mechanisms, broadening the tax base, and improving public financial management can increase government revenues, providing more sustainable funding for development initiatives. Encouraging remittances through formal banking channels and incentivising expatriate workers can also boost foreign reserves, strengthening Bangladesh鈥檚 economic resilience.
Diversifying economic partnerships is another critical priority. By expanding trade relationships with non-traditional markets and negotiating favourable trade agreements, Bangladesh can reduce its dependence on US markets. Strengthening ties with emerging economies in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East will open new avenues for exports and investment, enhancing Bangladesh鈥檚 strategic flexibility.
Investments in renewable energy, technology, and local manufacturing can further reduce dependency on external funding. Developing domestic industries and fostering public-private partnerships will create a more resilient economic framework, positioning Bangladesh for sustainable growth. Prioritising education and workforce development to drive innovation-led growth is equally critical, ensuring a competitive edge in the global economy.
Adaptive diplomacy will be crucial in navigating the complexities of US-Bangladesh relations under Trump鈥檚 presidency. Engaging in constructive dialogue with US policymakers to emphasise the mutual benefits of sustained cooperation will be essential. Highlighting the success stories of American-funded projects and their contributions to regional stability can strengthen the case for continued investment. Building people-to-people ties through educational exchanges, cultural programs, and professional partnerships can further solidify bilateral relations, fostering goodwill and understanding.
The Trump presidency underscores the importance of strategic adaptability in Bangladesh鈥檚 foreign policy. While challenges like trade uncertainties, human rights pressures, and geopolitical rivalries persist, opportunities for deeper economic and security cooperation remain. By strengthening domestic resilience, diversifying partnerships, and engaging in constructive diplomacy, Bangladesh can navigate the complexities of US relations under Trump鈥檚 transactional leadership, charting a path toward sustainable growth and equitable prosperity.
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Simon Mohsin is a political and international affairs analyst.
