MYANMAR鈥橲 ongoing civil war has reached a critical point, with the rise of ethnic armed organisations significantly altering the balance of power in the country. Among these groups, the Arakan Army has gained substantial control over Rakhine State, capturing key border areas near Bangladesh. This shift in power has further complicated the already dire situation of the Rohingya, who remain stateless, persecuted, and caught between conflicting forces. As Myanmar鈥檚 political and military landscape continues to evolve, the crisis has transformed into a regional security concern, extending beyond its borders to impact neighbouring countries, particularly Bangladesh.
For years, Bangladesh has struggled to find a sustainable resolution to the Rohingya crisis, relying primarily on diplomatic efforts that have yielded little success. Myanmar鈥檚 junta has consistently stalled negotiations, using misinformation and leveraging its relationships with China, Russia, and India to avoid accountability. Given these challenges, it is now essential for Bangladesh to move beyond its traditional reactive approach and adopt a proactive strategy that secures diplomatic, economic, and military leverage. A well-coordinated plan will enable Bangladesh to pressure Myanmar鈥檚 actors into meaningful negotiations while ensuring regional stability and safeguarding its national interests.
听
Myanmar鈥檚 internal conflict and the Rohingya dilemma
MYANMAR鈥橲 political landscape has been in turmoil since the military coup in 2021, which led to widespread resistance against the junta. Various EAOs, including the AA, have gained ground, seizing control of multiple regions and significantly weakening the military government. The AA鈥檚 dominance in Rakhine State has been particularly noteworthy, as it has captured strategic locations, including Maungdaw and Taungup townships, both of which border Bangladesh. The fall of Ann, the headquarters of the junta鈥檚 Western Military Command, further demonstrated the shifting power dynamics in the region.
Despite these changes, the fate of the Rohingya remains uncertain. Historically, the Rohingya have faced persecution from Myanmar鈥檚 military, culminating in the 2017 crisis that forced over a million of them to flee to Bangladesh. While the AA has positioned itself as a defender of Rakhine鈥檚 autonomy, its stance on the Rohingya remains ambiguous. There have been reports of hostilities against Rohingya civilians, sometimes as a result of the junta鈥檚 strategic manipulations. Additionally, the use of derogatory language, such as referring to the Rohingya as 鈥楤engali Muslims,鈥� signals that discriminatory attitudes persist.
The Rohingya are now in an increasingly precarious position. Forced conscription by the junta, accusations of affiliation with armed groups like the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, and growing hostility from the AA have further marginalised them. Without a clear framework for their repatriation and protection, their status remains in limbo, making a resolution to the crisis even more urgent.
听
Bangladesh鈥檚 strategic approach
BANGLADESH has long sought a peaceful resolution to the Rohingya crisis, but its efforts have been repeatedly undermined by Myanmar鈥檚 unwillingness to engage in meaningful negotiations. Myanmar has successfully used diplomatic cover from China, Russia, and India to delay repatriation efforts while continuing to receive political and economic support. Given these circumstances, it is imperative for Bangladesh to shift its strategy from passive diplomacy to one that establishes firm leverage over Myanmar.
The new approach should be built on three key pillars: diplomatic engagement with ASEAN, policy-driven advocacy, and strategic military preparedness. By strengthening regional alliances, utilising research-based arguments, and reinforcing its defence capabilities, Bangladesh can create a position of strength that forces Myanmar to take repatriation efforts seriously.
听
Building regional alliances with ASEAN
ONE of the most effective ways for Bangladesh to gain leverage over Myanmar is by solidifying its ties with ASEAN nations. Historically, ASEAN has been divided over Myanmar鈥檚 crisis, with some member states favouring diplomatic engagement while others have advocated for stricter measures. However, Bangladesh has the opportunity to bridge these divisions by presenting the Rohingya crisis as a regional security threat rather than just a humanitarian issue.
By engaging directly with ASEAN leaders, Bangladesh can highlight the broader implications of instability in Rakhine State. The ongoing conflict poses risks such as transnational crime, arms trafficking, and potential extremist recruitment, which could affect countries like Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. By framing the crisis as a shared security concern, Bangladesh can push for a unified ASEAN stance that increases diplomatic pressure on Myanmar鈥檚 military and the AA.
A united ASEAN front would make it more difficult for Myanmar鈥檚 allies, particularly China and Russia, to continue supporting the junta without facing international backlash. China, which has significant investments in Myanmar鈥檚 Belt and Road Initiative, values stability in the region. If ASEAN collectively demands action, Beijing may be compelled to reconsider its position, thus weakening Myanmar鈥檚 ability to stall negotiations.
听
Policy advocacy and data-driven diplomacy
WHILE diplomatic efforts lay the foundation for engagement, Bangladesh must also reinforce its position through rigorous, data-driven policy advocacy. Collaborating with ASEAN-aligned think tanks and research institutions can provide concrete evidence of the economic, security, and humanitarian consequences of the Rohingya crisis.
Research efforts should focus on three critical areas. First, documenting human rights violations committed by both the junta and the AA will create stronger international pressure for a rights-based resolution. Second, assessing the economic impact of instability in Rakhine can demonstrate how disrupted trade routes and declining cross-border investments affect regional economies. Finally, analysing security threats related to stateless Rohingya populations can highlight the risks of radicalisation and criminal exploitation, making a compelling case for ASEAN intervention.
By shifting the narrative from a humanitarian plea to a policy-backed security concern, Bangladesh can strengthen its diplomatic engagements and build a broader coalition of support. This approach will also help counter Myanmar鈥檚 misinformation campaigns, ensuring that the international community remains aligned with Bangladesh鈥檚 objectives.
听
Military readiness and strategic defence cooperation
ALTHOUGH diplomacy should remain the primary tool for engagement, Bangladesh must also prepare for potential security challenges along its border with Myanmar. The increasing volatility in Rakhine State, coupled with the AA鈥檚 rising confidence, necessitates a visible and well-coordinated military presence.
Bangladesh can enhance its strategic position by participating in joint military exercises with ASEAN nations that share concerns over Myanmar鈥檚 instability. Strengthening defence ties with countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand can send a strong message to Myanmar鈥檚 actors, particularly the AA, that regional forces are closely monitoring the situation.
Additionally, Bangladesh can leverage provisions of the US听BURMA Act, which authorises support for resistance groups opposing Myanmar鈥檚 military junta. While direct military involvement is not an option, utilising available resources for border security and intelligence-sharing can help Bangladesh maintain a strong defensive posture. A visible military presence along the border will also serve as a deterrent, discouraging any spillover of violence into Bangladesh鈥檚 territory.
听
Global implications and the role of major powers
THE Rohingya crisis is not just a bilateral issue between Bangladesh and Myanmar 鈥� it has far-reaching geopolitical implications. China, Russia and India have played significant roles in shaping Myanmar鈥檚 political landscape, often prioritising strategic interests over human rights concerns. But one crucial aspect overlooked by all stakeholders is that these Rohingya refugee camps could become breeding grounds for transnational terrorist organisations. These vulnerable populations are under the hawkish eyes of international terrorist organisations seeking to exploit them.
China, in particular, has deep economic stakes in Myanmar, including infrastructure projects linked to the BRI. While Beijing has traditionally backed the junta, a unified ASEAN stance could force it to reassess its position. Similarly, Russia鈥檚 military support to Myanmar may become increasingly difficult to justify if international pressure mounts. India, balancing its interests between countering China鈥檚 influence and maintaining regional stability, may also reconsider its approach.
For Bangladesh, the challenge lies in navigating these complex geopolitical dynamics while securing commitments for Rohingya repatriation. Strengthening alliances with Western nations, particularly the United States and European Union, could provide additional diplomatic leverage. Furthermore, advocating for an听UN-monitored safe zone in Rakhine听may be a viable solution to ensure that returning Rohingya populations are protected from further persecution.
By leveraging international support, engaging in multilateral negotiations, and maintaining strategic pressure on Myanmar, Bangladesh can push for a sustainable solution. Bangladesh must also assert its sovereignty while upholding humanitarian principles, ensuring that Myanmar fulfils its responsibility to reintegrate the Rohingyas into their homeland.
听
Conclusion
THE crisis in Myanmar has entered a new phase, with the AA鈥檚 growing influence reshaping governance in Rakhine State. While this shift presents challenges, it also offers Bangladesh an opportunity to recalibrate its strategy and assert greater control over the diplomatic process.
Moving beyond reactive diplomacy, Bangladesh must secure the听strategic high ground听by strengthening regional alliances, utilising research-driven policy advocacy, and reinforcing military preparedness. By framing the Rohingya crisis as a regional security issue rather than just a humanitarian concern, Bangladesh can shift the balance of power and force Myanmar鈥檚 actors into meaningful negotiations.
There should be continuous efforts for empowering Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh to develop leadership skills, assert their rights, and facilitate repatriation efforts. A proactive, multi-dimensional approach will not only facilitate Rohingya repatriation but also ensure long-term regional stability, positioning Bangladesh as a key diplomatic force in South Asia.听
听
M A Hossain is a political and defence analyst based in Bangladesh.
