US PRESIDENT Donald J Trump and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi met at the Oval Office of the White House on February 13. They ended the meeting with a joint press conference. The exchange of verbal pageantry between the two nationalist leaders is noteworthy. Trump addressed Modi as a great leader and Modi returned the favour, saying 鈥榝riend.鈥� Modi coined MIGA (Make India Great Again) to please his big brother, mimicking the election-winning slogan MAGA (Make America Great Again) of Trump.
This meeting highlighted space travel, trade, tariffs, military cooperation, technology and international security. Publicly, it hardly mentioned the Bangladesh-India-US relationship. When responding to a journalist鈥檚 question, Trump鈥檚 one-liner, 鈥業鈥檒l leave Bangladesh to PM Modi,鈥� generated a storm of debates in the print and online media of Bangladesh and India.
Also, there was no public statement on human rights and minority issues. However, from the press conference of Vikram Misri, the Indian foreign secretary, after the Trump-Modi meeting, we learnt that both the leaders spoke about the recent developments in Bangladesh, including minority issues. Vikram Misri gave no details except about working with Bangladesh. Did we learn anything about US policy towards India and Bangladesh issue from the Trump-Modi meeting? The answer is, probably, 鈥榥ot yet鈥�. We need to have patience.
There has hardly been any public discourse about Bangladesh. Still, president. Trump鈥檚 esoteric hint has generated many speculative conjectures and even some interesting conspiracy theories in the unscrupulous online space of Kolkata bloggers.
Trump鈥檚 one-line reply earned multiple interpretations. I will mention a few. Trump鈥檚 Bangladesh policy is nothing but looking through the eyes of India is one analysis. Another worth mentioning is that Trump did not want to get involved in the Bangladesh-India issue. Bangladesh is a low-priority country for Trump鈥檚 USA. In other words, he does not care about the July uprising and the post-revolutionary upheavals and their consequences for the Bangladesh-India relationship.
Trump is transactional and his motto is 鈥楢merica first鈥�. He might not be concerned about fair elections, democracy, human rights or minority safety in Bangladesh or any other country. Remember, he is closing the USAID. He initiated a review for opting out of the UNHRC, or the United Nations Human Rights Council, and he set up the process for pulling out of the WHO, or the World Health Organisation, and UNESCO, or United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation. He sanctioned the International Criminal Court. These UN organisations care about human rights and democracy and serve the poor, sick and the needy abroad. Do they serve US citizens? The answer is 鈥榥o鈥�. These do not, therefore, belong to Trump鈥檚 鈥楢merica first鈥� policy. Americans need help for themselves and so, they voted for him.
His recent actions indicate that he would not be interested in Bangladesh or any other country if it were not transactional. There could be two exceptions. If there is an ISIS-type fundamentalist takeover, he might act alongside India, his local proxy. If Bangladesh lands in the Chinese camp for the geopolitical power play, Trump could also sanction Bangladesh.
Does the Trump-Modi meeting indicate a policy change for Bangladesh in the United States? No one knows. No one can read Trump鈥檚 mind. He changes his policy randomly. It is difficult to predict his intention, which is his leadership style and strength. Like an apt businessman, Trump uses unpredictability to gain the best bargain. It appears that Trump is adept at playing an asymmetric game in international affairs to maximize his profit.
Sometimes, it appears that the previous administration of president Biden bypassed India and pursued an independent foreign policy for Bangladesh, especially for a fair and participatory election in Bangladesh. Some Indian media even complained about the deep state of the United States for its involvement in the overthrow of prime minister Hasina鈥檚 regime, which regime was very dear to the Indian administration. In the joint press conference, Trump denied US involvement, which is different from his usual tendency to blame the previous US administration of Joe Biden for every misdeed as per Trump. The US deep state is the nemesis of Trump, who is doing everything possible to obliterate the deep state with the help of Elon Musk, the wealthiest man in the world.
If the deep state had been involved in the demise of the Hasina regime, Trump would care the least. But if, in doing so, the deep state spent the US taxpayer dollars, Trump would strongly go after the Biden administration, expose the perceived misdeed of Biden and make a lot of noise.
The misinformation campaign of Indian media about the United States鈥� clandestine effort in fomenting and aiding the July uprising is nothing but a balloon filled with smelly air. Trump鈥檚 categorical statement should put an end to the yellow journalism of the Indian media. I hope that prime minister Modi will issue an official statement in this regard. He might not do this because doing so would compromise his desire to replace the Trinamool Congress from West Bengal鈥檚 political power in the 2026 election.
Despite Modi鈥檚 public silence on Bangladesh during the Trump-Modi meeting, he is keenly interested in the recent event in Bangladesh, which helps his strategy to win the election. Right-wing religious rhetorics of antagonism have a symbiotic relationship. One adversary feeds the other although they appear to be opposites. Extreme nationalistic slogans in India make Modi popular in certain Indian voter blocks. An obvious reaction of the extreme right wing of an opposite genre in Bangladesh generates more votes for Modi. In the populist circle of Bangladesh, it is vice versa 鈥� an almost perfect mirror image.
With unresolved entanglement of wild and wishful conjectures about the Trump-Modi meeting, the heated conversations in the blog space will continue beyond the standard news cycle of print media. Will it energise the symbiotic extreme nationalists on both sides of the border? Time will tell.
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Dr Mostofa Sarwar, a scientist and poet, is a professor emeritus at the University of New Orleans.
