SINCE the Communist Revolution in 1949 till February 1972, the United States has not recognised Mao Zedong鈥檚 China. It has accepted the People鈥檚 Republic of China (Taiwan) as the legitimate Chinese government. In 1953, the Soviet Union and China together fought a war on the Korean peninsula against the US-led coalition. The Soviet Union and China fell apart over the Sino-Soviet border clash in 1969. The United States decided to exploit Sino-Soviet tension, end decade-long animosity with China and isolate the Soviet Union. China felt threatened by the Soviet Union. At this juncture, US foreign secretary Henry Kissinger鈥檚 secret visit to China on July 21, 1971 was a welcome diplomacy to lay the ground for Nixon鈥檚 visit to China.
In a historic move, US president Nixon visited China in February 21鈥�28, 1972. The United States established a full diplomatic relation with Mao Zedong鈥檚 China, recognised one-China policy, withdrew the full support from Taiwan and lowered diplomatic relations. When the visit became public, it was a huge surprise to many around the world but a huge shock for Taiwan. China was chosen as counterweight to the Soviet Union in the Far East. Cozying up the relations further, the Untied States lobbied to replace Taiwan with China in the elite club of 5Ps in the UN Security Council. Five decades later, president Donald Trump is pulling Russia away from China, a reversal to Nixon鈥檚 moment in 1972.
Trump鈥檚 pro-Russia statements and accusation against president Volodymyr Zelensky for the Russia-Ukraine war caught the US鈥檚 European allies, especially Germany, France and the United Kingdom, by surprise. The United States provided military assistance worth $300鈥�350 billion. Donald Trump sent out a clear message to Ukraine鈥檚 president that there would be 鈥榥o free lunch鈥� and asked him to sign a trillion-dollar rare earth mineral contract.
Zelensky met Trump on February 28. Ukraine鈥檚 president demanded US security guarantee in exchange for the deal. The United States disagreed to give security guarantee. The press conference between Trump and Zelensky turned into a presidential spat never seen before. The US vice-president and White House chief of staff joined with fiery and snobby words to berate Ukraine鈥檚 president. The outcome of the visit was that Zelensky had lost US political support to regain the lost territory and military support to fight against Russia.
US attempt at pulling Russia away from China concerns China, too. According to the New York Times report of February 24, Chinese president Xi Jinping said to president Putin over a video meeting, 鈥榃e are your true friend who have been through thick and thin together.鈥� Chinese state media elaborated Xi鈥檚 statement, 鈥楬istory and reality show us that China and Russia are good neighbors who won鈥檛 move away, and true friends who have been through thick and thin together, support each other and develop together.鈥� On the same day, the United States joined Russia to vote against a European Union-drafted UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia鈥檚 war against Ukraine.
China鈥檚 exponential political, economic, technology and military growth at the turn of the 20th century indicated that the United States has a challenger in the making. The warm relation which began in 1972 and continued through the 1970s and the 1980s started to turn into rivalry in the 1990s. China鈥檚 fast advancing manufacturing and tech industries, rapid economic growth, military development and widening sphere of political influence across the continents in Africa, Asia and South America through the Belt and Road Initiative together with strategic alliance with Russia are to make matters worse for the United States.
Since the day Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States and its European allies imposed a couple of thousand sanctions to punish Russia and cripple its war-making capability. Sanctions pushed Russia into a diplomatic isolation. But China, Iran and North Korea stood by Russia and extended strong military, economic and trade support. The west cut Russia off the global financial systems. All these actions and sanctions forced Russia to form alliance with China which they called 鈥榥o-limit friendship鈥�.
The relation grew on all fronts 鈥� political, military, economic, trade and technology. China and Russia have conducted more than 100 joint military exercises since 2017, including anti-submarine exercises in the Pacific. The United States and its allies hoped that unfettered sanctions would destroy the Russian economy. President Joe Biden announced to turn the ruble into rubble. But the ruble withstood the western multi-pronged thrusts.
The fundamental reason for the United States to pull Russia is to isolate China. A concomitant pull effect could isolate Iran in the Middle East and North Korea in the Far East. China has been crucial lifeline for Moscow to bypass western economic sanctions. Besides China, both Iran and North Korea also provided critical military support when Russia needed it most. North Korean troops fought on the frontline in support of Russia. The presidential spat between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky has pulled the United States away from Ukraine before the United States could pull Russia away from China. The souring relation between the United States and Ukraine adds up plus point for Russia.
How far will Putin reciprocate Trump鈥檚 diplomatic gesture? The answer is difficult. However, it can be said that Putin would take the full advantage of the situation both on the front line and diplomatic lines. Then, will the United States be successful in turning Russia away from China when Putin distrusts the west, including the United States? An unpredictable alignment is possible in geopolitics. Does Trump have any game-changing offer for Vladimir Putin to frustrate Xi Jinping? Or, has Russia put something strategic on the table to pull the United States in favour without frustrating China?
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Mohammad Abdur Razzak ([email protected]), a retired commodore of the Bangladesh navy, is a security analyst.
