More than three quarters of Bangladesh鈥檚 installed power generation capacity remained unused for a few hours in the morning since the winter officially began on the first day of December.
The power demand is likely to drop further in the coming days with the winter intensifying, potentially worsening power overcapacity, which cost over Tk 1 lakh crore in the 15 years until 2023.
Electricity demand dropping low during winter is nothing new and rather a reminder of Bangladesh passing yet another year without expected economic growth.
Bangladesh鈥檚 current installed power generation capacity is 27,740MW. The minimum power demand at 5:00am on Wednesday was 6,771MW. The maximum supply of 16,477MW of electricity was recorded on April 30.
The ousted Awami League government invested $33 billion in the power sector alone, increasing the power generation capacity by more than five-fold to accelerate economic activities that remained elusive for over a decade.
鈥楨conomic activities are rather declining,鈥� said energy expert Ijaz Hossain.
鈥榃e are heading towards an unreal situation. We must increase our energy consumption,鈥� said Ijaz.聽
Despite the massive power overcapacity, industries fail to operate at their full capacity for over two years due to energy shortage.
Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry recently held a discussion where the keynote paper showed a 30 per cent fall in industrial production due to energy shortage.
Measuring the actual status of economic activities by the electricity consumed through the national grid is, however, difficult because industries rely more on captive power than the grid.
Besides the poor status of the national grid, another reason for low industrial power consumption is the AL government鈥檚 policy to incentivise captive power production.
A unit of electricity is produced at a captive power plant by using gas at a subsidised cost of Tk 4.5, whereas a unit of electricity from the national grid costs about Tk 8.
Bangladesh鈥檚 current captive power capacity is 2,800MW.
鈥業ndustries鈥� power consumption remained literally unchanged over the past five years,鈥� said energy expert Mohammad Tamim.
In 2023, the Power Development Board data showed that 27.63 per cent of the overall electricity produced鈥�79,270 units鈥攚as sold to the industrial sector, down from 37.1 per cent sold in 2019 out of 21,955 units produced.
The PDB鈥檚 sale of electricity to industries has steadily聽 declined over the past three decades since 1994, the year since when the sale data is available.
In 1994, the industrial sector used 45.72 per cent of the total 6,148.8 units produced by the PDB.
All industries where production is seriously hampered due to frequent power cuts have their own source of electricity, which is known as captive power, energy experts said.
The supply of gas to captive power is also responsible for deteriorating the fuel crisis in the power plants generating power for the national grid.
Over half of Bangladesh鈥檚 gas-based power generation capacity remains unused during peak summer because of fuel shortage. The idle gas plants generate a huge capacity charge.
The US-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis report estimated that shifting half the industrial captive power demand to the national grid would save Tk 34.14 billion annually.
Household is the main consumer of electricity. Bangladesh officially achieved 100 per cent electrification in 2022.
Energy experts also doubt that the grid was ready to satisfy household demand as power cuts have been frequent even in winter.
An analysis of officially-released data revealed that power demand increased by about 5 per cent in the second week of December, compared with the same time in the past winter.
The electricity demand by households during summer increases by about 5,000MW.聽
鈥楾he power demand growth this winter should have been greater, perhaps 7 per cent or more,鈥� said IEEFA lead analyst Shafiqul Alam.
An analysis of official data showed that power generation usage capacity was 24 per cent in the
past year, down from 28 per cent in the previous year.
In 2022, the power capacity usage was 28 per cent, followed by 27 per cent in 2021 and 2020.
The student-led mass uprising that overthrew Sheikh Hasina government on August 5 lead to a period of unrest disrupting economic activities, energy experts said.
They feared impending significant job losses if economic activities did not scale up.
