AN INCREASE in unemployment rate has become a major cause of concern while unemployment and under-employment have for long been indicators of jobless growth. The Bureau of Statistics, in its quarterly labour force survey, made public on May 6, says that the number of the unemployed has increased by 2.4 lakh in the first quarter of 2024. The survey finds the number of unemployed people at 25.90 lakh, up from 23.50 lakh in the preceding October鈥揇ecember 2023 quarter. The number of unemployed males increased to 17.40 lakh in January鈥揗arch from 17.10 lakh in the corresponding 2023 quarter. The number of unemployed females, however, declined from 8.80 lakh in the first quarter of 2023 to 8.50 lakh in the first quarter of 2024. Independent studies have always questioned the BBS data, saying that the statistical office has always tried to manipulate the unemployment figure and the way it defines unemployment is problematic. The statistical office considers, keeping to the ILO definition, the people unemployed who do not work at least one hour in preceding seven days despite having willingness and who have looked for paid work for 30 days.
Such a definition is problematic in that an hour of paid work a week does not make anyone employed and does not meet one鈥檚 demand. Keeping to such criteria, the agency calculates the unemployment rate to be at 3.51 per cent in the first quarter of 2024 and 3.36 per cent in 2023. Independent studies put the rate at 20鈥�25 per cent. The rise in unemployment and underemployment is blamed on the slow growth of the private and the informal sector, which employ about 85 per cent of the work force. The government projected private investment share of gross domestic product to increase from 22 per cent to 27 per cent this financial year. But that has not been the case, as evident in the consistent decline in private sector credit growth. Such a decline suggests that not enough jobs have been created. Independent data show that the private sector has created few employment opportunities. Even the most thriving business sector, apparel industries, could not increase employment. A SANEM report says that the number of jobs grew by only 0.9 per cent a year, or less than an eighth of the rate at which the economy grew.
The government has, therefore, a number of issues to attend to. It must ensure a business-friendly atmosphere to attract more private and foreign direct investments. It must also try to channel investments into labour-intensive sectors to avoid jobless growth. The government must also ensure that public investment is not wasted because of corruption and irregularities.