THE months of July-August 2024 emerged as remarkable on many counts. To say the least, the months marked the end of an era where, allegedly, ‘ development of underdevelopment’ was the order of the day. This was driven by the distorted socio-economic and political policies of the Awami League government. After one and a half decades of alleged ‘grievous governance’ and ‘electoral manipulations’ for clinging to power, the regime felt fiercely apart under a student-led, fiery mass uprising. This paved the way for an interim government to power. And, the newly positioned interim government is headed by the earlier regime’s much-hated Dr Mohammad Yunus.
It is only a month or so that the interim government has taken over responsibilities. An evaluation of this government’s activities at this tiny time span would possibly be tantamount to premature and albeit inappropriate exercise. Had it been 100 days or 3 months in office, we could possibly make an assessment of the activities carried out by the present government.
But then, within this shortest time, there is some good news to celebrate; it is surprising that few silver lining steps are afoot, such as attempts at streamlining the fragile financial sector, reducing duties on some essential commodities, earnest eagerness to bring back the laundered money and to bring to book the launderers, attempts on the way to get back the looted money from the banks by unscrupulous business groups, formation of six commissions for reforms in six areas, etc. Side by side, the deteriorating law and order situation, growing hooliganism and toll collections, inflation, and anarchy in educational institutions could blur positive steps.
Interestingly, the Bangladesh Institute of Governance and Development of BRAC University has very recently conducted a nation-wide survey on the public’s perceptions about the most recent national event’. BIGD’s survey was titled ‘Pulse Survey August 2024: A Reflection of Optimism and Endorsement in the Context of a Polycrisis’.
The just-published ‘Pulse Survey: August 2024’ aims to throw light on Bangladeshis’ perception of the political and economic atmosphere of the country from the date the Awami regime fell to date. The survey collected data from 2,363 men and women from all districts through a telephone survey.
ÌýDr Imran Matin, executive director of BIGD, is of the view that , ‘a credible perception survey is important for the practice of deliberative democracy. We will be conducting regular pulse surveys till December 2024 to create a longitudinal picture of citizens’ perceptions on the performance of the interim government.’
The survey results show that a majority of the people are positive about the political and economic direction of the country under the interim government. ‘However, we’ve seen such positive reactions during previous uprisings, such as the 1971 liberation war, the 90’s anti-authoritarian movement, etc, and we have also seen the eventual loss of hope. Citizens want reform, but real reform is only possible if we change our mentality and internalise the ethos of never ever again let anyone take away our democracy.’
Considering the political situation in July-August this year, 71 per cent of the respondents believe that Bangladesh is on the correct path, and 12 per cent cited a wrong path. The findings are in sharp contrast with the findings from the Asia Foundation-BIGD survey in January 2024, when just 43 per cent of people expressed optimism about Bangladesh’s political future, while 41 per cent expressed pessimism. ‘The inflation in political optimism among the public reflected in the August Pulse Survey is most likely based on aspirations from the interim government, rather than being based on their experiences with it’.
Whether Bangladesh was heading in the right or wrong direction economically, 60 per cent responded in the affirmative, while 27 per cent said it was otherwise. In contrast, in the previous survey in January 2024, only about one-third felt optimistic, while nearly two-thirds felt pessimistic, thus indicating complex dynamics and polycrisis.
In the Pulse Survey, 40 per cent of the respondents said that economic issues, including price hikes, business downturns, etc, are the biggest problem of the country at present — a sharp decline from January 2024, when 69 per cent said so. Further, the Pulse Survey in August reflects concerns about a diversity of concurrent issues in a manner not seen in January 2024. While the economy is still the predominant issue, 15 per cent of respondents in the August survey said flooding is the country’s biggest problem, 13 per cent mentioned political unrest and intolerance, and 7 per cent said the deterioration of law and order is concerning. When asked if crime increased in August in comparison to other months (due to the fall of government), 72 per cent said no, and 25 per cent said yes. On a similar question about the relative increase in violence, 75 per cent said no, and 23 per cent said yes.
If they supported the quota-reform movement’s transformation into the one-point demand, an overwhelming majority — 83 per cent — said they supported the movement’s transformation. Again, 38 per cent of respondents thought the government should stay in power for three or more years, while 24 per cent thought six months or less would be fine. Furthermore, 9 per cent of respondents said they would prefer the government to hold power for two years, and 11 per cent said a maximum of one year. ‘However, most respondents — 81 per cent — felt the government should stay in power as long as it needs to do the necessary reforms in order to hold a free and fair election.
When asked about their thoughts on banning party-affiliated student politics, 81 per cent of respondents appeared affirmative and 84 per cent liked a ban on party-affiliated teachers’ politics on campus. ‘The data are indicative of just how much the public’s mood has soured over the unending cycle of corruption and violence in our educational institutions incited by party-affiliated politics, especially by institutional power. And the public feels the necessity to root out the patronage networks that enabled this corruption and violence for so long’.
The first demand from the interim government before the election is economic reform (32 per cent) including a demand for a price reduction, market regulation, employment generation and other economic reforms, followed by 17 per cent demanding political and electoral reforms, and 12 per cent demanding the rule of law, which includes reform of the law, freeing the judiciary from political control, and reforming police and other forces.
When asked how they would rate, between 0 and 100, the reform efforts so far by the current interim government, respondents provided a rating of 75 on average. The dominant mood right now is optimism. Despite different concerns and worries, 53 per cent of survey respondents feel optimistic about the country’s future, both political and economic, while just 13 per cent feel pessimistic. With the fall of the previous authoritarian regime, the current political climate instils among the citizens hope for a better future for the country after a long time.
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Abdul Bayes, a former professor of economics and vice-chancellor, Jahangirnagar University, is now an adjunct faculty at East West University.