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SINCE its independence, Myanmar has been plagued by instability and ethnic conflicts, particularly in the Arakan (Rakhine) state, home to two major communities: the Rohingya Muslims and the Rakhine Buddhists. The military-dominated central government has consistently demonstrated harshness, discrimination, racism, and misuse of power, particularly against people of diverse ethnic and religious backgrounds. This enduring dynamic has left Myanmar entrenched in backwardness, instability, and unrest compared to other nations in the region.

These conditions have placed neighbouring Bangladesh in a precarious security position. Myanmar’s military actions, ethnic conflicts, cross-border trafficking, smuggling, and insurgent activities — notably those of the Arakan Army — have further intensified the crisis. Bangladesh has responded with a humanitarian approach, hosting over a million Rohingya refugees who fled Arakan to escape the junta’s brutal crackdown. However, Myanmar’s ongoing unrest has forced Bangladesh to grapple with significant security, social, and economic challenges.Ìý

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Risk of extremism and radicalisation

THE prolonged displacement of the Rohingya people, spanning multiple generations in camps, has left them in deeply inadequate living conditions. The overcrowded and impoverished camps are breeding grounds for frustration and despair, especially among young people who lack access to education and livelihoods. These conditions make them vulnerable to exploitation by extremist elements. Myanmar’s junta could also covertly manipulate the situation to sow discord among the Rohingya and prevent unified efforts to reclaim their rights. Furthermore, Myanmar has often covertly tarnished the image of the Rohingya to discredit them in host countries worldwide.

This displacement and lack of opportunity create a recipe for potential radicalization. Transnational militant groups have reportedly identified the Rohingya population as a vulnerable pool for recruitment, exploiting the chaos to lure individuals with promises of empowerment, retribution, or a better future. This exploitation could unintentionally entrap the Rohingya in dangerous activities.Ìý

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Cross-border violence and diplomatic strain

BANGLADESH faces escalating risks from Myanmar’s internal conflicts, as frequent cross-border incidents strain bilateral relations. Clashes between Myanmar’s military and rebel groups often spill into Bangladeshi territory, with stray bullets and artillery shells landing in border areas. Such incursions instill fear among local residents and pose a direct threat to innocent lives.Ìý

Myanmar’s deployment of landmines along the border adds to these risks, endangering refugees and local communities. Reports of injuries and fatalities, particularly among children, are disturbingly frequent. Experts describe this as a ‘silent catastrophe,’ highlighting the severe human cost and escalating tensions in the region. Additionally, violations of the sanctity of the border by Myanmar troops have become the norm.

Myanmar’s security forces have repeatedly undermined peaceful coexistence between the two nations by engaging in aggressive actions along the border. These include attacks on Bangladeshi border security guards, abductions of Bangladeshi fishermen from within Bangladesh’s territorial waters, and theft of property belonging to Bangladeshi citizens. Furthermore, they have consistently violated the no-man’s-land regulations, escalating tensions and straining bilateral relations.

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Drug trafficking and organised crimes

MYANMAR’S position as one of the world’s largest producers of methamphetamines (commonly referred to as Yaba tablets) poses a grave security risk for Bangladesh. The porous border is exploited for smuggling these drugs, particularly into vulnerable border communities, fuelling rising addiction rates and escalating crime. Local law enforcement faces immense challenges in combating the methamphetamine trade, which has grown significantly in recent years.

The broader security implications are alarming. Drug trafficking is intertwined with organised crime, leading to increased violence and straining Bangladesh’s law enforcement resources.Ìý

Reports also suggest Myanmar’s security forces are complicit in trafficking activities. The Arakan Army, which gains significant income from the illegal drug trade and other illicit activities, has intensified this threat by leveraging its control over border areas.

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Human trafficking networks

HUMAN trafficking has emerged as another grave concern along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border, exploiting the vulnerability of Rohingya refugees. Criminal networks prey on desperate individuals, particularly women and children, luring them with false promises only to subject them to forced labour and exploitation. Security experts emphasise that these operations involve sophisticated transnational criminal networks.

Reports suggest that Myanmar’s border guards facilitate trafficking operations, coercing Rohingyas onto smuggler boats to drive them further from their homeland. This not only worsens the refugee crisis but also heightens regional instability.

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Insurgent alliances and cross-border militancy

THE Arakan Army’s control over border areas raises serious concerns about potential alliances with insurgent and separatist groups in Bangladesh’s Chittagong Hill Tracts. Such alliances could increase cross-border militant activities and arms smuggling, destabilising Bangladesh’s internal security.Ìý

Insurgents holding dual citizenship and maintaining networks on both sides of the border further complicated efforts to address this threat. The interplay of these factors presents a multidimensional security risk that could undermine regional stability. Many members of these groups have reportedly settled in remote areas on both sides of the border, especially after the Rohingya people were forcibly displaced under gun threats and death threats.

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Diplomatic stalemate

BANGLADESH’S efforts to resolve the Rohingya crisis through diplomatic channels have faced consistent resistance from Myanmar. Despite repeated attempts, Myanmar refuses to take responsibility or facilitate the safe repatriation of the Rohingyas.Ìý

Myanmar’s strategic alliances with influential powers, including China, India, and Russia, complicate global intervention. These alliances reduce the urgency for international action, leaving Bangladesh to shoulder the burden.Ìý

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Refugee influx and consequences

THE influx of Rohingya refugees has overwhelmed Bangladesh’s infrastructure, social services, and public utilities, particularly in Cox’s Bazar. Facilities originally designed for local populations are now overstretched, fuelling tensions between refugees and host communities.

The environmental impact of hosting refugees has been severe. Forests in Cox’s Bazar have been cleared to accommodate camps, leading to deforestation, soil erosion, and water scarcity. These challenges disrupt local agriculture and fisheries, critical to the livelihoods of nearby communities, exacerbating tensions and social instability. Sustainable resource management and international collaboration are crucial to mitigate these long-term risks.

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Lack of accountability for Myanmar actions

THE absence of meaningful international sanctions against Myanmar has emboldened its military and government to persist in their aggressive policies, disregarding human rights and border safety, and directly threatening Bangladesh’s security. A unified international response is critical to ensure Myanmar faces consequences for its actions. Furthermore, Myanmar’s repeated allegations that the Rohingyas are Bengalis not only deepen the oppression of the Rohingyas but also directly challenge Bangladesh’s sovereignty and security.

These accusations suggest that Myanmar has no genuine intention of resolving the crisis. Instead, it appears to be deliberately prolonging the conflict, with the aim of driving the remaining Rohingya population into Bangladesh — an agenda seemingly shared by both the Myanmar government and the Arakan Army.

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Volatile path ahead

THE convergence of challenges — extremism, cross-border violence, trafficking, strained diplomacy, environmental degradation, and geopolitical complexities — has created a highly volatile situation for Bangladesh. The Rohingya crisis has placed immense pressure on the nation, stretching resources to their limits and testing its resilience. Without decisive international action, enhanced regional cooperation, and a robust, comprehensive national policy on border security and crisis management, the crisis risks further destabilising Bangladesh, with serious implications for its security and future. Addressing these issues requires a comprehensive national strategy and global collaboration. Bangladesh must lead regional efforts to ensure Myanmar’s accountability while strengthening its internal resilience. With decisive action, the nation can transform this crisis into an opportunity for regional stability and humanitarian leadership.Ìý

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Abu Ahmed Farid is an entrepreneur, CEO and founder of Dakwa Corner Bookstore, Malaysia.