BANGLADESHI parties, still gutsy, encounter a heightened existential fear 鈥� the disquiet of a deep institutional crisis for them and the nation at large. And yet, parties are strategic to the country鈥檚 liberal democratic future. Since prime minister Sheikh Hasina lost power to the unprecedented civil unrest on August 5, 2024 and Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus-led interim regime took over, the prominent parties and their leaders have been uncertain about the yet-to-be fully envisioned fulcrums of power in future. The traditional political actors found themselves between a post-revolt depoliticisation, on the one hand, and the steering calls for a rejuvenation of politics with younger leadership, on the other. The new students-manoeuvred National Citizens鈥� Party (Jatiya Nagarik Party) epitomised the anti-elitist thunder, resonated since Hasina鈥檚 autocracy tumbled in August 2024. Headed by Nahid Islam, the convener of the new group, the Citizens鈥� Party is a collection of the ten top leaders, who led the earlier Students Against Discrimination that wrecked the Hasina rule.
The contentious politics anyhow did not escape the army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman鈥檚 recent speech, a stern message that unless people acted together, the country鈥檚 sovereignty could be at risk. Three battle-ground questions that braided the parties since Hasina鈥檚 plunge were (a) a firm election date, (b) the festering disputes over the timing of political reforms and (c) the bombshell announcement in support of a student-directed party with revolutionary aspirations nurtured in the wake of anti-Hasina upheaval of 2024. A 鈥榩olitics of rage鈥� and a cacophony of distrusts still rattle politics without a closure in sight. Not surprisingly, the mainstream parties, especially the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, are impatient to regain power in the backdrop of a long hiatus of despotic rule, three rigged elections in a row and a growing scepticism regarding landmark parties and their classic mentors. The recurrent violence and reprisals, especially the February destruction conducted at Sheikh Mujibur Rahman鈥檚 old house in Dhaka (Road 32 at Dhanmondi) and other AL leaders鈥� property in different districts scared Bangladeshis about a peaceful transition from autocracy to democracy.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party does not want any untested incursion into its hopes to win a majority in the next poll. But now the National Citizens鈥� Party, an unfamiliar competitor, has jolted the country鈥檚 political calculus. The next election will not be easy for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. Jamaat-e-Islami and the smaller parties would prefer the major reforms first and then go for a legislative election. It would give them more time to organise themselves. To the foremost partisan players, the freshly launched student-led party might threaten their institutional survival and, surely, it is a step into political uncertainty.
An earlier conspiracy for 鈥榤inus two鈥� 鈥� implying the political elimination of the Awami League chief Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia, the BNP leader, is still alive in public memory. Hunkered down, the Awami League is now at its lowest stratum of public estimation. The UN human rights report recently found Hasina and her accomplices solely responsible for brutal killing and merciless torture through the July鈥揂ugust agitation. Hasina faces both international and domestic prosecutions for those allegations during her long term in office. Activists in the Students Against Discrimination and their associate Citizens鈥� Committee wanted the Awami League and its allies to stay out of politics until they confront the charges for hideous crimes during their stretch in power. Whatever blames fall on Hasina鈥檚 now-defunct repressive regime, also quickly sinks on the Awami League, her party.
And the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, edging towards election, is yet to regain its full steam, according to assorted observers. So, the interim authority and the student leaders may dare to exclude both the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Awami League from politics through the new National Citizens鈥� Party. This is the anxiety that runs through both BNP and AL leaders鈥� minds. Whispers about the Students Against Discrimination鈥檚 earlier calls for 鈥榓 new political settlement鈥� and it 鈥榓nti-hegemonic voices鈥� are amongst the new discourses of Bangladesh politics. With an acceptable number of seats in the next election, the inchoate National Citizens鈥� Party may coalesce with other parties keeping the Bangladesh Nationalist Party in despair. Those political estimates polarise Bangladeshi party politics now.
The anti-elite populism is yet to realise that politics eventually yields under the 鈥榠ron law of oligarchy鈥� that never dies. Both the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Awami League, under their dynastic elites, face the populist negativity towards dynastic sway in parties. Virtually, all the parties 鈥� from the toppled Awami League to the sidelined Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the nearly-delegitimised Jamaat-e-Islami and a host of smaller groups could not fly above their respective institutional failings in the past. Striving reformists now encounter burdens of their veiled assumptions, distortion and denial of the mainstream opposition parties鈥� earlier sacrifices for over a decade. BNP leaders reject the allegations of 鈥榩aralysis and stagnation鈥� against them 鈥� the victims under Hasina鈥檚 bullying. A senior leader of the party recently warned that elections should not wait for the political reforms hoisted by the interim regime and the new party鈥檚 leaders. Whatever reformist agenda Yunus and his advisers might draw, the political parties will eventually go their way 鈥� for their partisan interests, paying least attention to the bids for institutional changes.
Opponents of the National Citizens鈥� Party, however, warned against any blessings of the interim regime for the newly propelled political party. The politicians worry about a lengthy stint of non-political caretaker rulers without an electoral mandate. The Pakistani military rulers downgraded the politicians 鈥� it also happened for a while in Bangladesh following the 1975 coups and counter-coups. But now the courageous bunch of student leaders who banished a well-entrenched tyrant may overturn the country鈥檚 familiar equilibrium of power 鈥� a nightmare for the mainstream parties. The collapse of a hegemonic party does not necessarily guarantee the rise of sound parties. The East Pakistan Muslim League, dominant party almost disappeared after the 1954 election. But the ascending United Front soon warped under the thrall of diverse factional leaders. And eventually, Ayub鈥檚 depoliticisation (1958鈥�69) became a disaster.. Pakistan鈥檚 national integration fell apart. Did General Waker-Uz-Zaman鈥檚 strident remark echo such fears?
Anti-Hasina uprising in Bangladesh and the White conservative men鈥檚 frustration against the traditional institutions and the long-standing political leaders in North America and Europe are, however, not identical. Further to their plan, the National Citizens鈥� Party pioneers have also offered a new 鈥榗hetana鈥� 鈥� a national inspiration and an identity comprehension, so long monopolised by the Awami League and the Mujib family. Is the national identity trajectory shifting more towards anti-Hasina revolt of 2024? An open-ended debate now, the ideological contest will fuel both inter-party and intra-party polarisation.
The 1954鈥�58 parties in East Pakistan depended on the students to topple incumbent regimes at various times. But then, people were still aware of the mainstream leaders鈥� presence in the movements 鈥� the protesting students worked more as the proxy on behalf of the larger parties. They also claimed remarkable success in the anti-Ayub campaigns, the Awami League victory in the 1970 election and the 1971 independence movement. The student protesters, the major opposition parties and their top leaders mutually backed each other 鈥� the locus of power did not seriously lose its balance.
Bangladeshi parties are still in their 鈥榙ecades of instability鈥�, but they are, nevertheless, buoyant. Circumvention, repression, death by hanging and the worst variety of relegating could not exterminate the Bangladesh Nationalist Party or Jamaat-e-Islami over a decade. Throughout the brutal years, they held out better than Samuel Huntington鈥檚 gloomy predictions on institutional future. We are not yet certain that the National Citizens鈥� Party will bring consequential changes for Bangladeshi politics. We are not yet sure that the National Citizens鈥� Party would be just another king鈥檚 party. Voters have not yet spoken on this phenomenon.
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M Rashiduzzaman, a retired academic, lives in the United States. He is a frequent writer on Bangladesh and South Asian politics, history and identity. His most recent book is Parties and Politics in East Pakistan 1947-71: The Political Inheritances of Bangladesh, Peter Lang, 2025.