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Bangladesh finds itself navigating a delicate balance between rapid economic development and urgent climate action. As the world’s seventh most climate-vulnerable nation, the country contributes a modest 0.4 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet its domestic emissions are growing at an alarming 5.6 per cent annual rate. This increase stems from the twin engines of industrialisation and urbanisation that are propelling Bangladesh towards its goal of upper-middle-income status by 2031. The nation now faces a critical challenge: how to maintain its impressive development momentum while addressing the major sources of emissions that threaten both its environmental future and economic stability.

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The energy sector: powering progress at a climate cost

Dominating Bangladesh’s emissions profile, the energy sector accounts for 52 per cent of total greenhouse gases, driven by an electricity generation mix that remains stubbornly dependent on fossil fuels for 75 per cent of its power. The country’s growing appetite for energy, reflected in its ambitious target of 40,000 MW generation capacity by 2041, threatens to triple power sector emissions if current strategies persist. This reliance on imported LNG, coal, and furnace oil not only contributes significantly to carbon emissions but also creates economic vulnerability, consuming 15 per cent of total import bills. Despite these challenges, Bangladesh sits on untapped renewable potential that could transform its energy landscape. The country enjoys more than 300 sunny days annually, yet solar energy contributes a meagre 2.8 per cent to the energy mix. Simple interventions like installing rooftop solar on just 10 per cent of urban buildings could generate 3,000 MW of clean electricity, while newly operational wind projects in Cox’s Bazar demonstrate the viability of harnessing coastal wind resources estimated at 5,000 MW potential.

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Agriculture: the methane challenge

Accounting for 28 per cent of national emissions, Bangladesh’s agricultural sector presents complex challenges where climate action intersects with food security imperatives. Rice cultivation, the backbone of both nutrition and rural livelihoods, generates 55 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent annually through methane emissions from flooded paddies. The livestock sector contributes another significant portion, while the doubling of fertiliser use since 2000 has led to concerning increases in nitrous oxide emissions. These environmental impacts need not be inevitable trade-offs for food production. Proven techniques like alternate wetting and drying irrigation can reduce methane emissions by 30 per cent while conserving precious water resources. Emerging precision agriculture technologies using soil sensors could optimise fertiliser application, and improved livestock feed formulations demonstrate how climate-smart practices can maintain productivity while reducing environmental harm.

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Industry: the growth-emissions dilemma

Bangladesh’s industrial sector, responsible for 12 per cent of emissions, embodies the tension between economic growth and environmental sustainability. The readymade garment industry, which brings in $47 billion annually, consumes energy equivalent to five coal plants, while booming infrastructure development drives carbon-intensive steel and cement production growing at 8 per cent yearly. Decarbonising this crucial sector requires innovative approaches across manufacturing processes. Waste-heat recovery systems in textile factories could capture 30 per cent of currently lost thermal energy, while green cement production using industrial byproducts like fly ash offers a pathway to reduce construction emissions. Perhaps most promising is the potential for circular economy models in the garment sector, where recycling initiatives could transform waste into resources while creating new green jobs.

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Transport: urbanisation’s carbon cost

The transport sector’s 8 per cent contribution to national emissions tells the story of Bangladesh’s rapid urbanisation and its consequences. Dhaka’s vehicle fleet expands by 12 per cent annually, with traffic congestion now costing an estimated 3.2 per cent of GDP in lost productivity. The freight sector presents particular challenges, with truck-dominated logistics moving goods at three times the emissions intensity of rail transport. Sustainable mobility solutions could dramatically reshape this landscape. Electrifying just 30 per cent of Bangladesh’s 2.5 million cycle rickshaws by 2030 would create a cleaner last-mile delivery system, while expanding the nascent metro rail network could remove half a million daily car trips from Dhaka’s congested streets. Perhaps most transformative would be revitalising the country’s extensive inland waterways, which could shift 20 per cent of freight traffic from roads to more efficient boats and barges.

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Waste: the overlooked emission source

Bangladesh’s growing cities generate 25,000 tonnes of waste daily, with open dumping creating methane emission hotspots that rival the output of coal-fired power plants. Dhaka’s landfills alone emit methane equivalent to an entire coal plant’s emission, a startling fact that underscores both the problem and the opportunity. This waste crisis contains the seeds of a circular economy revolution. Modern waste-to-energy plants could convert urban refuse into electricity for 500,000 homes, while comprehensive composting programmes targeting organic waste could reduce landfill emissions by 40 per cent. The plastic waste challenge could be transformed into an economic opportunity through recycling initiatives that might create 200,000 green jobs while cleaning up urban environments.

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Policy pathways for low-carbon growth

Bangladesh’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets a 15 per cent reduction in unconditional emissions by 2030, an ambitious goal that requires coordinated action across all sectors. The energy transition could be accelerated through a combination of renewable energy expansion, carbon pricing mechanisms, and coal power permit moratoriums. Agricultural emissions might be addressed through large-scale adoption of water-saving irrigation techniques and development of low-methane rice varieties. Industrial decarbonisation could be driven by mandatory energy performance standards for factories combined with tax incentives for green manufacturing. Urban mobility solutions should prioritise mass transit expansion and freight modal shifts, while comprehensive waste management reforms could transform cities from emission sources to circular economy hubs.

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The road ahead

Bangladesh stands at a pivotal moment where climate action and development strategy must converge. With smart policy choices and targeted investments, the country could peak its emissions by 2035 while maintaining strong economic growth. This transition requires substantial resources — an estimated $12 billion in annual climate finance — but presents unparalleled opportunities to build competitive advantages in green industries and sustainable technologies. For a nation that has repeatedly defied developmental expectations, the shift to low-carbon growth represents both its greatest challenge and most promising opportunity to secure a prosperous, sustainable future for generations to come.

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Musharraf Tansen is a development analyst and former country representative of Malala Fund.