AUGUST 5 is yet another day added to the history of Bangladesh. On this day, Sheikh Hasina resigned as prime minister amidst a student-mass uprising, ending her 15 years’ iron-fist rule. She left Bangladesh and took refuge in India. Events unfolded quickly that day. The fall of the government appears a huge shock to both Awami League and India. India, having recovered from the shock, broke silence on August 6, raising concern about the security of minorities in Bangladesh and hoped order to be restored quickly.
On August 7, India scaled down the presence of staff in its high commission in Dhaka, mentioning safety reasons. On August 8, India shut all visa application centers across Bangladesh, citing an unstable situation. On August 9, India’s prime minister Narendra Modi sent his ‘best wishes to Professor Muhammad Yunus’, the head of interim government, and hoped ‘an early return to normalcy, ensuring the safety and protection of the Hindus and all other minority communities.’ He also expressed India’s commitment to work with Bangladesh.
India’s diplomatic actions and reactions were followed by anti-Bangladesh narratives around ‘attacks on the Hindus and their temples’ propagated by the Indian print and electronic media. As part of a wider campaign, Indian diaspora in the United Kingdom, Canada and the United States also went on demonstration demanding safety of the Hindus in Bangladesh. Some of the Indian politicians went that far urging indian to consider intervention as it did in Sri Lanka and the Maldives in 1987 and widen the Siliguri corridor.
While the Indian media were propagating false narratives, the ground reality was diametrically opposite. Shashi Tharoor, member of parliament from the Indian Congress during a talkshow on NDTV praised the Muslims in Bangladesh who guarded and protected temples and Hindu property. Thge secretary general of the Hindu Grand Alliance in Bangladesh also praised the Muslims for safeguarding the Hindus. Unfortunately Indian media have never published such positive action by Muslims.
After the political changeover, there were attacks largely on people associated with Awami League politics irrespective of their religious identity. Religion was not at all the prime issue in such attacks. Mobs even ravaged police stations to take revenge of their crimes against people and students. The Hindu community staged demonstration in Dhaka, Chattogram and Khulna against alleged attacks and demanded security. India payed the ‘Hindu card’ and ‘Islamist card’ against Bangladesh internationally to its convenience. In this case, the wider application of the Hindu card by the Awami League and India was to add volatility to the fragile public order. Sectarian provocation and false narratives only contributed to widening and deepenening the already prevailing anti-India sentiment.
Neither the people during the time of liberation were anti-India nor the Generation Z people were born to be anti-India. Such a negative sentiment is created by India through its anti-Bangladesh activities such as the operationalisation of the Farakka Barrage in 1975, creating ‘Shanti Bahini’ insurgency in the Chattogram Hill Tracts, the mechanical fencing of common borders, killing Bangladeshis in the frontiers, imposing barriers on Bangladeshi export to India, the withdrawal of waters from common rivers, Akhand Bharat concept targeting to merge small neighbours and so forth. The withdrawal of water from the Ganges together with other common rivers has destroyed the ecology and livelihood of millions of people. The Ganges water sharing agreement was signed in 1996 after the Awami League had assumed office. India also stopped aiding Shanti Bahini insurgents to end the two decades’ insurgency in 1997.
After a brief period of bumpy politics since 1996, Bangladesh plunged into a violent political conflict in 2006, leading to the formation of military-backed two-year caretaker government on January 11, 2007. Before the general elections in 2008 under the caretaker government, India asked General Moyeen U Ahmed, a former chief of army staff, to bring the Awami League back to power. In return, India assured him security of his job and a safe exit. Elections were held. The Awami Lague came to power. The general continued with his job. He retired on June 15, 2009, safely left Bangladesh and did not came back.
During the Awami League rule between 2009 and 2024, ‘democracy’ became the first casualty in Bangladesh politics. All democratic institutions and practices faced politicisation in line with the Awami League’s ideological orientation. India connived to establish a draconian political climate in Bangladesh. The government became increasingly intolerant of any kind of opposition, whether political or non-political. Even criticising the prime minister of India or any demonstration against India was treated as an offence. Such loyalty by a Bangladeshi government was unprecedented. India became confident of pressing ahead with the dependable government of the Awami League and completely ignored the popular sentiment.
The Jatiya Party appeared as a faithful opposition. India’s influence with the elections was exposed in December 2014. India’s former external affairs secretary along with a Bangladeshi intelligence chief escorted the Jatiya Party chair Hussein Mohammad Ershad from his residence in Baridhara to Combined Military Hospital in Dhaka. Ershad was kept there till the elections were over. Ershad’s wife, Rowshan Ershad, was made the party chair to lead the party in the elections. While elections of 2014, 2018 and 2024 were internationally noted as ‘not free and fair’, India gave clean a chit.
Anti-India sentiments deepened faster because of India’s endorsement to undemocratic practices in Bangladesh politics. The negative sentiment grew strong enough for activists to launch a campaign to boycott Indian products which gained traction. Despite growing dislikes, India was confident of shieldibng both the AL government and Sheikh Hasina through its moles across the political sphere, bureaucracy, military, judiciary and police. India took the party and its government for guaranteed to advance its interests in Bangladesh and have its say in internal and foreign policy affairs. India continued to disregard the depth and strength of people’s sentiment and expectation. There, India made the blunder.
The geopolitical saying that ‘neighbours cannot be changed’ is true for both for Bangladesh and India. Although Bangladesh is a small country, it is so much important to India that India cannot even draw its map without Bangladesh. If people look at the map with insight, they will notice that Bangladesh is balancing the integrity between India’s seven sisters and the rest of the Indian territory. Bangladesh is the only country to provide economic connectivity between the seven sisters and the rest of India, connecting northeast Indian states to maritime trade route and providing strategic alternative for the vulnerable Siliguri corridor.
On the economic frontiers, Bangladesh is a very big market for India. Hundreds of thousands of people visit India every year and spend millions of dollars on treatment, tourism, etc. In 2023, more than two million people visited India. The Economic Times online said on August 19 that the July uprising in Bangladesh ‘crush-landed on Indian tourism’. According to the report, ‘Bangladeshi travellers, who usually make up 23 per cenbt of India’s inbound tourism — primarily for medical, [tourism] and shopping reasons — have seen a 90 per cent decline in outbound travel due to recent turmoil. With flights disrupted and visa services limited, travel between the two countries has nearly halted. This decline, particularly affecting popular destinations like Kolkata and Northeast India, has led to a 40 per cent drop in bookings.’ India’s high commission in Dhaka earns a couple of million dollars through consular services. A large number of Indians work in Bangladesh. They are the third largest remitters of foreign currency to India. In 2022, India exported goods worth $13 billion to Bangladesh. India will not find another such a large composite market for its businesses in South Asia. But, Bangladesh can find alternative sources of supplies for its businesses. China and other countries will happily fill in any vacuum left by India.
Anti-India sentiment that has been created particularly in 15 years will be carried over in the years to come. The Generation Z people who are now in their teens and twenties will join the state apparatus in future. They will drive internal and external affairs of the future Bangladesh. Therefore, India should make a policy decision to build relation with people and people’s government. India should become a true development partner of Bangladesh instead of a muscle-flexing big brother. India must value the people and people’s government. As neither of the countries can change neighbours, both Bangladesh and India should work to build a stable and friendly neighborhood.
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Mohammad Abdur Razzak ([email protected]), a retired commodore of the Bangladesh navy, is a security analyst.
