THE Rohingya crisis, which began in 2017 with the forced migration of over 700,000 Rohingya individuals from Myanmar to Bangladesh, continues to represent one of the most intricate humanitarian and geopolitical dilemmas in South and Southeast Asia. Bangladesh has been pivotal in offering sanctuary and addressing the challenges posed by this crisis; however, the engagement of regional powers such as China and India is essential for achieving a sustainable resolution. Both nations, possessing substantial geopolitical and economic stakes in Myanmar, have the potential to impact the situation but have thus far maintained a careful and strategic stance.
An examination of the current strategic dynamics surrounding the crisis reveals the significant roles of China and India. China鈥檚 involvement in Myanmar is fundamentally linked to its strategic objectives, particularly through initiatives like the 鈥楤elt and Road Initiative鈥� and the 鈥楥hina-Myanmar Economic Corridor鈥�. The strategic positioning of Myanmar offers China a vital connection to the Indian Ocean and an alternative route to circumvent the heavily trafficked Strait of Malacca, thereby improving its access to international trade routes and energy resources. This vested interest in ensuring Myanmar鈥檚 stability and its ties with the military government inform China鈥檚 measured response to the Rohingya crisis.
Additionally, certain analysts suggest that China鈥檚 hesitance to exert substantial pressure on Myanmar is influenced by its overarching geopolitical aspirations. The 鈥淜yaukphyu deep-sea port鈥� and the 鈥渙il and gas pipelines鈥� connecting Myanmar to Yunnan province are crucial to China鈥檚 strategic objectives. These initiatives are vital components of the Belt and Road Initiative and serve to diminish China鈥檚 reliance on the Strait of Malacca for energy resources. Consequently, China has placed its economic interests above humanitarian considerations in the context of the Rohingya crisis. Beijing鈥檚 strong ties with the Myanmar military, which it perceives as a reliable partner for its investments, indicate that it is unlikely to advocate for reforms or actions that could threaten the military鈥檚 authority. While China promotes stability in Myanmar, its strategy has frequently involved backing the military junta, even as the situation in Rakhine deteriorates. Nevertheless, China has engaged actively in mediating discussions between Bangladesh and Myanmar, primarily through its participation in tripartite dialogues. Some critics have characterised this effort as a balancing act. However, the execution of this discussion has been largely ineffective, hindered by Myanmar鈥檚 reluctance and the ongoing conflict in Rakhine.
China鈥檚 mediation initiatives represent constructive development; however, its primary objective continues to be the preservation of the status quo in Myanmar to protect its investments. This focus detracts from addressing the fundamental issues underlying the Rohingya crisis, namely ethnic persecution and the denial of citizenship rights to the Rohingya population. To date, China has refrained from exerting pressure on Myanmar to implement significant reforms or to guarantee the safe return of Rohingya individuals, as such actions could jeopardise its relationship with the military regime.
However, China鈥檚 strategic partnership with Myanmar could play a crucial role in resolving the Rohingya crisis, given its substantial economic and political leverage over the country. Should China choose to adjust its strategy and emphasise regional stability alongside humanitarian issues, it could apply pressure on Myanmar鈥檚 military authorities to facilitate the safe, voluntary, and dignified repatriation of Rohingya refugees. For example, China might leverage its influence to promote a peace agreement between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army in Rakhine, which is essential for creating a favourable environment for repatriation. Moreover, China鈥檚 participation in international platforms, such as the United Nations Security Council, where it possesses veto power, could be critical in influencing global reactions to the crisis. Although China has previously obstructed strong resolutions condemning Myanmar鈥檚 actions, it has the potential to alter its position and endorse international legal and diplomatic initiatives aimed at holding Myanmar accountable for the atrocities committed against the Rohingya.
Similarly, India鈥檚 involvement in the Rohingya crisis is significantly influenced by its geopolitical aspirations and security considerations within the region. As the western neighbour of Myanmar and a rising global power, India has a vested interest in maintaining stability along its borders. Similar to China, India鈥檚 stance on the Rohingya situation is shaped by its overarching strategic interests in Myanmar, particularly regarding infrastructure development, security collaboration, and the need to counterbalance China鈥檚 expanding influence.
Historically, India has adopted a measured approach to the Rohingya crisis, refraining from strongly condemning Myanmar鈥檚 actions. The 鈥楢ct East Policy鈥� underscores the necessity of fostering closer economic and strategic relationships with Southeast Asian nations, including Myanmar, as part of India鈥檚 strategy to mitigate China鈥檚 dominance in the region. Significant infrastructure initiatives, such as the 鈥楰aladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project鈥� and the 鈥業ndia-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway,鈥� are integral to India鈥檚 economic and strategic objectives, facilitating connections between its northeastern states and Southeast Asia.
Additionally, India perceives Myanmar as a crucial ally in addressing insurgencies within its northeastern territories. Cooperation with Myanmar鈥檚 military is essential for India to effectively manage cross-border insurgent activities. Consequently, India has been hesitant to undertake any measures that might jeopardise its military and economic partnerships with Myanmar, even amidst the ongoing Rohingya crisis. Moreover, India鈥檚 internal dynamics significantly affect its position on the Rohingya crisis. The country accommodates a limited number of Rohingya refugees, and their presence has emerged as a politically charged topic. Certain political factions in India have characterised the Rohingyas as a potential security risk, contending that their presence may incite radicalisation or criminal behaviour. This perspective has contributed to India鈥檚 reluctance to accept additional Rohingya refugees or adopt a more proactive approach to their situation, as it strives to reconcile humanitarian issues with domestic security priorities.
Despite this cautious stance, India, akin to China, wields considerable influence over Myanmar. Its investments in infrastructure and security collaboration with Myanmar鈥檚 military provide India with the capacity to engage more actively in addressing the Rohingya crisis. India could leverage its influence to advocate for political reforms in Myanmar, particularly concerning the acknowledgement of Rohingya citizenship and the protection of human rights.
Furthermore, India鈥檚 participation in international platforms such as the United Nations, ASEAN, and BIMSTEC could play a crucial role in fostering multilateral pressure on Myanmar. The strategies employed by both China and India regarding the Rohingya crisis are informed by their overarching strategic objectives in Myanmar. Nevertheless, while their interests in maintaining stability and fostering economic ties align, their methods and roles diverge.
Bangladesh, strategically located between China and India, must navigate a careful diplomatic approach to the Rohingya crisis. It should engage China to encourage its active involvement, highlighting how the crisis threatens China鈥檚 economic interests in Myanmar. Additionally, Bangladesh should urge India to align its Rohingya policies with its democratic values and strengthen cooperation through platforms like BIMSTEC to promote political reforms in Myanmar. Bangladesh should also leverage multilateral organisations such as ASEAN, the UN, and BIMSTEC to apply international pressure on Myanmar for a sustainable resolution. Alongside, Bangladesh should continue supporting international legal frameworks for accountability regarding Myanmar鈥檚 actions. The ICJ proceedings initiated by The Gambia for the Rohingya represent a significant step toward justice. Additionally, Bangladesh should work with the ICJ to build cases against those responsible for atrocities against the Rohingya, as increased legal pressure may prompt Myanmar to engage in meaningful repatriation discussions.
While China and India can influence Myanmar鈥檚 policies, their focus has often been on economic and security interests over humanitarian concerns. Therefore, Bangladesh must continue its diplomatic efforts with both nations, using multilateral advocacy to seek a political resolution that ensures the safe and dignified return of the Rohingya. A lasting solution requires coordinated regional and international initiatives.
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Dr Mohammad Kamrul Hasan is a transboundary crisis management researcher.
