ISRAEL fought first war against Arabs from May 15, 1948 to March 10, 1949. The outcome of the 10 month鈥檚 war was in Israel鈥檚 favour. The war of 1967 (June 5鈥�10, 1967) concluded in just six days, with the results being overwhelmingly in Israel鈥檚 favour. The war of 1973 lasted for 20 days (October 6鈥�25, 1973). The result of the war was also in Israel鈥檚 favour.
In 2006, Israel and Hezbollah fought a 34 days鈥� war in southern Lebanon which is also called the Second Lebanon War. It was a war that undermined Israel鈥檚 military deterrence. The Israeli government鈥檚 five member Winograd Committee opined that the war 鈥榳as a big and serious failure鈥� for Israel. The previous Hamas-Israel war (July 8, 2014鈥揂ugust 26, 2014) before the current conflict was fought in 2014. The war was short and the outcome was inconclusive on either side.
The Hamas-Israel which began on October 7, 2023 has so far been the Israel鈥檚 longest war against the world鈥檚 most persecuted and the most admirably resilient Palestinians who were left alone by the world community including their Arab brethren to fight out their own rights. It has turned out to be war between Gazans and Israel, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and the European Union commanded by Israel.
Hamas鈥檚 surprise attack against Israel on October 7, 2023 killed 1,200 people and took 254 hostage, as the US state department says. The attack was the outburst against 70 years of Israeli tyranny sowed by the French and British that grew under the patronisation of the United States. The scale of Israeli response to the Hamas attack was predictable.
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared to turn Gaza into a 鈥榙eserted island鈥�, an intention to perpetrate genocide to wipe out Palestinians from their homeland. Israel responded with a record disproportionate scale of force backed by the unparalleled apolitical, immoral and unabated notorious military support of the United States. As of October 27, Israel killed 42,924 Palestinians, including 1,765 children and injured 100,833; and 10,000 went missing. Israel has caused unprecedented material destruction in Gaza.
According to the United Nations Satellite Centre, as of September 6, two-thirds, or 66 per cent, of the total structures in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed. 鈥楾hose 66 per cent of damaged buildings in the Gaza Strip account for 163,778 structures in total.听This includes 52,564 structures that have been destroyed, 18,913 severely damaged, 听35,591 damaged structures and 56,710 moderately affected.鈥� More than a half of the residential buildings are destroyed. Israel has damaged and destroyed 80 per cent of commercial facilities abd 87 per cent of schools. It has destroyed 19 health care facilities and hospitals and 17 are severely decapacitated. It destroyed 68 per cent of road networks and 68 per cent cropland. Every hour, Israel is dropping 42 bombs, destroying 12 buildings, killing 15 people, 6 children and injuring 35 people. In this war, 763 Israeli soldiers and 877 civilians were killed. The cycle of Israeli crimes did not achieve the war objective which Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared a year ago.
One year after the war, the Israeli prime minister iterated his resolve to fight until 鈥榯otal victory鈥� in its continuing war on Gaza. There is an unspoken confession in his statement: he does not know when the war will end and how to end the war. Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant听criticised the war saying 鈥業srael鈥檚 war effort has become aimless.鈥� The war is widening in complexity. Israel is dug into a long-drawn war. As the war prolongs, it will spiral into more complications. Israel has already pulled the Houthi in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran into the conflict. The global south is increasingly standing against Israeli war crimes.
A war has uncontrollable costs. Costs are direct and indirect. All costs are measured in financial denomination. Direct costs are easy to measure. Indirect costs are subject to evaluation of the adverse impact of war on economic activities. Sun Tzu鈥檚 philosophical saying that 鈥榖efore going to war, count cost鈥� is quite relevant in today鈥檚 warfare also. Israel may have miscalculated in this case.
The United States has the largest economy and also the largest military spending in the world. It has the strength to finance wars on multi-fronts in different parts of the world. The United States spent $2.60 trillion during its 20 years of operation in Afghanistan. It is financing Ukraine to continue war against Russia. Now, Israel is a priority over Ukraine. It is maintaining more than 750 military bases in 80 countries across the world. The United States has military aid or financing programmes in different countries. Till 2022, the United States spent $8 trillion on the post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and elsewhere.
The United States has been the single biggest financier of military grants to Israel. Israel has received $158 billion in military aid from the United States since 1948, making it the largest recipient of military financing. According to a conservative estimate, the United States has given military assistance and fund worth $22.76 billion to Israel since October 7, 2023, additional to the annual grant of 3.8 billion. The US military grant or aid to Israel does not include the cost of military operations of its own forces deployed to defend Israel鈥檚 backyard.
The United States in 2019 agreed to pay Israel a record $38 billion over 10 years 鈥� $3.8 billion a year. In 2023, because of the war, US military aid to Israel exceeded $3.8 billion. Of the $3.8 billion in military aid, half a billion was for Israel鈥檚 missile defence systems.
Israel鈥檚 treasury minister Bezalel Smotrich said that the daily direct cost of the Gaza war was about $246 million. Given this figure, Israel鈥檚 direct war cost from October 2023 to October 2024 was around $90 billion in simple mathematics. Added the costs of war against Hezbollah and Houthi, the daily direct cost may have pushed the expenditure to a staggering half a billion and pushing annual cumulative war cost over $180 billion. Israel鈥檚 defence spending from its national exchequer in 2023 was $22.26 billion. The defence budget in 2024 was $30.5 billion. The minister confessed that the Gaza war has made the 2023-2024 budget irrelevant. The Israeli government has already downgraded the economy from stable to negative.
The treasury minister did not have an assessment of the indirect war costs of the economy 鈥榩artly paralysed by the mass mobilisation of military reservists and extensive Palestinian rocket salvoes鈥� and Iranian missiles. His opinion suggests that there is uncontainable impact of the war on Israel鈥檚 economy. How long can Israel鈥檚 economy support the increasing cost of war? Israel has nothing to worry about financing its war as it has the United States, the Aladdin鈥檚 magic lamp, in hand.
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Mohammad Abdur Razzak ([email protected]), a retired commodore of the Bangladesh navy, is a security analyst.
