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Political observers and analysts in Bangladesh and abroad said that dysfunction in Bangladesh’s interim government would considerably boost the chances of Sheikh Hasina’s participation in elections, according to a US-based Time Magazine report published on Thursday.

According to Time, a return for Hasina ‘is quite credible,’ says Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center. ‘If you look at the history of dynastic politics in South Asia, you can never rule out dynastic parties even when they appear to be down and out.’

Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year reign as prime minister ended on July 5. She resigned and fled to India amid a student-led mass uprising on the day. Hundreds were killed and wounded during the uprising.

Zillur Rahman, executive director of the Dhaka-based Centre for Governance Studies and a talk show host, told Time that there was no way for Sheikh Hasina and her party to play any significant overt role in Bangladeshi politics for the next decade unless the interim government fails monumentally, according to the report available online.

Nobel laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus took the oath as the chief adviser of the interim government of Bangladesh on July 8. However, the government is currently facing many challenges.

In 15 years of uninterrupted rule, practically every government institution has been politicised by Hasina’s Awami League party, engendering deep distrust of the military, courts, civil service, and especially security services, mentions Time.

In his address to the nation on September 11, chief adviser Muhammad Yunus announced the formation of six commissions for reforms in the electoral system, police, judiciary, public administration, constitution and anti-corruption commission.

Shahidul Haque, a retired Bangladesh Army major-general, ambassador, and defence attaché, told Time that a politicised bureaucracy was trying every trick in the book to stymie reforms, says. ‘They are trying to destabilise this government,’ he says. ‘And if no visible improvements happen people are going to lose patience.’

Sajeeb Wazed Joy, son of Sheikh Hasina, is counting on it.

‘If they want to run the country for a year or 18 months, actually I believe that’s perfect,’ he told Time, pointing to ‘lawlessness’ with ‘the mob, the protesters, basically on a rampage.’

However, Meenakshi Ganguly, Asia deputy director for Human Rights Watch, said that there wasn’t an absolute breakdown in the rule of law. ‘There are no pogroms, and we haven’t seen any recent attacks on a large scale,’ he told Time.

Other observers are less confident about Hasina’s participation in elections as across Bangladeshi society, statues of Sheikh Mujib have been toppled, posters of Hasina defaced and replaced by lurid graffiti decrying her as a dictator.

‘That’s how Sheikh Hasina’s legacy is being imagined among the young population,’ Mubashar Hasan, a Bangladeshi scholar at the University of Oslo in Norway, told Time.

Joy claimed that he did not have political ambition and no decision had been made regarding whether Hasina would return to stand in elections.

‘But given the current scenario, who knows? I haven’t made any decision,’ said Joy.

Observers also mentioned that Joy likely had no political future in Bangladesh because he could not build an image as a people’s leader and Awami League could not imagine an alternative to Hasina.

Rahman told Time that Awami League’s biggest weakness was its cult of personality centred around Sheikh Hasina.

He said, ‘They cannot imagine an alternative to Sheikh Mujib’s daughter.’

Rahman added that if Joy could not reinvent himself from the ground up as a people’s leader in Bangladesh, he likely had no political future.

Mubashar, the Oslo-based scholar, agrees, ‘He doesn’t have the respect and attachment among young people. And demography matters,’ mentions Time.